科恩馬集團 (KNM)

（吉隆坡27日訊）科恩馬集團（KNM，7164，主板工業股）最新業績表現出色，分析員上調該股盈利預測，雖然該股因外資持股偏高而潛存被拋售風險，但分析員仍看好該股前景。

科恩馬集團剛公佈的08年上半年的核心淨利，達到1億5000萬令吉的水平，超越市場人士的預測。同時，該公司第2季的淨利則達到9600萬令吉，這主要是因為收購Borsig後，後者開始貢獻盈利的緣故。此外，高額的平均銷售價格、產能以及生產更多高賺幅產品和賺幅擴大，也令該公司第2季的表現高過市場預期。

同時，在更多高賺幅產品的帶動下，科恩馬集團第2季的營運賺幅也按提高5.5%，至21.5%的水平。如考慮到該公司賺幅提升時，恰逢全球原物料高漲的因素，該公司所取得的表現更是難能可貴的。

排除Borsig的因素，分析員估計，科恩馬集團第2季的淨利按季取得37%的成長。

此外，科恩馬集團目前的訂單高達46億令吉，同時該公司還競標高達200億令吉的工程。如此龐大的數目令該公司未來的「盈利能見度」處於高水平。

在海外營運方面，目前科恩馬集團為加拿大油砂工程，提供處理器材的7000萬加幣的合約，將會從第3季開始貢獻盈利，並會在09財政年達到高峰。

亞歐美投資銀行分析員指出，隨著科恩馬集團在第2季取得強大的表現後，他決定將該公司08財政年的盈利預測調高10%，至4億4900萬令吉，並預測Borsig將在下半年，為該公司帶來1億3000萬令吉的盈利。

若科恩馬能通過收購Borsig的行動中取得稅務回退，將會節省8500萬令吉的稅務。

亞歐美投資銀行維持對科恩馬集團「買進」的投資建議，目標價設定在2.55令吉。

艾芬投資銀行維持對科恩馬集團「買進」的投資建議，但是由於將本益比目標從16倍調降到14倍，該公司的目標價格也因而從原本的2.63令吉，調降到2.30令吉。

拉昔胡申研究員說，他對外資持股量比較多的公司感到憂慮，因為這代表可能會面對更高的潛在賣壓，但相信科恩馬集團的展望仍很好，並維持對該公司「超越大市」的投資建議，合理價維持在2.61令吉的水平。

卖出KNM，暂时休战!

马股动荡不安与大马政治掩盖着不明朗的因素，我决定卖出KNM，蒙受亏损。再看看FKLI Futures，discount 15 points,明天星期五还是看跌成分较高。况且，美国隔夜道琼斯工商指数暴跌，跟还是离不开房贷所种下的祸根。

至于IOICorp的走势与大市相反，依然一点绿。IOICorp实在是超级稳固，不受外围不安的因素而下挫。

最近，买股难赚钱，而且是输多胜少，想想如果有机会出国挖金，也是不错的选择。

KNM keen to supply equipment for LNG project

KNM GROUP Bhd, a world-class process equipment manufacturer, wants to tap business opportunities that will be generated from Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) recent acquisition of a 40 per cent stake in Santos Ltd's liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Gladstone, Australia.

Its chairman Datuk Mohamad Idris Mansor said the company is keen to supply process equipment for the proposed building of plants under the Gladstone LNG project.

"We will participate in the plant building rather than development of the project. They need process equipment, and we will tender to supply them," he told reporters after the company's annual general meeting in Sri Kembangan yesterday.

Last month, Petronas announced that it is paying US$2.5 billion (RM8.12 billion) or 40 per cent interest in Santos' LNG project in Gladstone. Under the agreement, a new entity will be set up which will also build and operate a 450km pipeline from jointly-owned upstream coal seam gas (CSG) assets to the project site as well as undertake all marketing activities for the project's LNG output.



Idris said KNM's subsidiary in Australia, KNM Pty Ltd, will be able to supply process equipment for the facilities in Gladstone.

"If there are opportunities for us to bid for their plant, meaning they have to build a plant to handle the project, our Australian office can definitely participate in bidding for it," he added.

Meanwhile, KNM Group managing director Lee Swee Eng said he believes KNM will have the edge to secure contracts from the Gladstone project through its recently acquired German company, Borsig.

"Borsig is very strong in this CSG area, particularly in reactors and boilers," he said.

KNM acquired Borsig this year for €350 million (RM1.7 billion).

Lee said KNM has not started talking to Petronas yet about the Gladstone project, and may opt instead to approach turnkey contractors appointed by the national oil company.

"We will come in very much mid-way into the project. For the early phase, Petronas will be talking to engineering consultants or turnkey contractors," he said.

He added that KNM expects to start bidding for contracts after 2010, the third year of the five-year planned period for the Gladstone project.

KNM bids for RM20b of projects

The value of the contracts the engineering group is bidding for can go as high as RM50 million or less than RM1 million per project, says its group MD

KNM Group Bhd, a world-class process equipment fabricator, is bidding for RM20 billion worth of projects overseas, namely in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.

Group managing director Lee Swee Eng said that traditionally, the company's success rate in securing projects is between 20 per cent and 25 per cent.

"We are continuously bidding for projects irrespective of their size and value of the contracts. It can go as high as RM50 million or less than RM1 million per project," he told reporters after KNM's annual general meeting in Seri Kembangan, Selangor, yesterday.

"At any one time, we will bid for an average of 100 projects," he said.



KNM's order book stands at RM4.2 billion, with 95 per cent of the projects overseas and the rest domestic.

"Our order book is quite diversified and evenly spread around the world. We have projects in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, China, North and South America, Canada and Europe," Lee said.

He added that organic expansion will continue to be its main growth driver this year.

"The group continues to strive to improve its global market share for process equipment by expanding its current manufacturing plants and establishing new facilities in global oil and gas hotspots."

For instance, it approved capital expenditure last year to set up manufacturing facilities in Alberta, Canada; Espirito, Brazil; and Al-Jubail, Saudi Arabia.

"Once completed, the manufacturing facilities will significantly improve the group's ability to secure more contracts for projects in Canada, Brazil and the Middle East," Lee said.

The plant in Alberta is expected to be operational by the third quarter.

The company also announced plans this year to acquire two process equipment manufacturers, namely Belgium's Ellimetal and Germany's Borsig, for €20 million (RM101 million) and €350 million (RM1.8 billion) respectively.

"Such acquisitions are intended to elevate the group up the process equipment value chain," Lee said.

He added that Borsig had already started contributing to the group's revenue, while Ellimetal was expected to generate revenue by next month.

"Borsig's acquisition was completed on June 6, and its revenue consolidated in KNM's account this month, while we are close to concluding the purchase of Ellimetal this month."

Lee also said that the company does not actually reap benefits from the high oil price, but more from the demand for such fossil fuel.

"When there is demand for fuel, there will definitely be more jobs for us, the service providers.

"But it will not be good if the price of oil rises too high as that will adversely affect the economy, which will result in less demand for fuel," he said.

买进KNM

机会来了，今天买进KNM，作价RM6.20。

当时4点多，我有点犹豫不决，到底买还是不买；要排在RM6.15还是RM6.20;当看到美国道琼斯工商Future指数呈上扬趋势，同时RM6.20在卖单给人吃完了，决定排在首个买单RM6.20,一两下就做到RM6.20,不久一个500lots的卖单炸到RM6.15，想不到RM6.15的价格也能做到。

有时买股也讲运气，希望买到最低点，虽然如此，不过最重要还是不会让我蒙受亏损。

这是买股投资最终目的就是要获利!

科恩馬手持42億訂單;海外競標200億工程

（吉隆坡17日訊）科恩馬（KNM，7164，主板工業）迄今握有約42億令吉訂單，同時正競標海外超過100項、總值200億令吉的工程。
科恩馬董事經理李瑞興透露，公司競標成功率介于20%至25%。

他指出，競標計劃遍佈全球，尤以西亞地區居多，包括沙地阿拉伯、科威特及卡達爾等。

他說，目前海外業務貢獻盈利約95%。

他今日出席年度股東大會后，發表談話；列席者包括主席拿督莫哈末依德利斯。

科恩馬甫在本月6日，完成收購德國工程公司Borsig BBtev（簡稱Borsig）。

李瑞興指出，Borsig已開始貢獻公司盈利，現階段除了推動業務自行成長，也不排除任何併購機會。

“我們會考慮任何新併購計劃，但也會專注推動新加入的Borsig業務成長。”

該公司是在今年3月宣佈，斥資逾17億令吉全面併購Borsig和旗下6家子公司。

至于比利時油氣加工配備生產商Ellimetal NV收購計劃，李瑞興預計，可在月內完成收購，並從7月開始貢獻公司盈利。

未設定派息政策

科恩馬迄今未擬定派息政策，莫哈末依德利斯指出，管理層持續留意股東的派息需求，未計劃設定派息政策。

李瑞興也說，股東正受惠于公司業務成長，管理層將優先考慮，把資金重新注入公司以擴展業務成長。

詢及科恩馬是否有意參與馬石油（Petronas）及澳洲能源公司Santos的煤層天然氣聯營工程時，他指出，科恩馬沒有和馬石油展開任何洽談。

“但Borsig擁有上述計劃所需的煤層天然氣相關科技，因此佔有一定優勢。”

他說，科恩馬為配備生產及供應商，一般在工程中期才開始供應配備。

他以5年工程為例，預計在2009年底或2010年時，上述工程承包商才開始物色相關配備供應商。

至于加拿大新廠房進度時，李瑞興指出，新廠建築預算約6500萬令吉，年產能可達10噸。

上述廠房主要生產油砂層相關配備。

KNM in, Gamuda out of FBM30 index

KNM Group Bhd will replace Gamuda Bhd in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Large 30 Index after the half-yearly index review, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Advisory Committee announced yesterday.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid-70 Index experienced similar turnover levels as the last review with seven new stocks entered the mid-cap index compared to eight during the December 2007 review, the committee said in a statement.

The new stocks are Gamuda Bhd, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, Ann Joo Resources Bhd, Kinsteel Bhd, Tradewinds Malaysia Bhd, Media Chinese International Ltd and Boustead Properties Bhd.

As for the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index, a tradeable index of 30 stocks to be used as the basis for international Syariah-compliant products, two changes were approved with the inclusion of KLCC Property Holdings Bhd and Star Publications Malaysia Bhd.

According to the committee, the changes to the indices are to take place as part of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Series half-yearly review.

“The regular reviews ensure the indices remain an accurate reflection of the market they represent,” it said, adding that the changes will take effect at start of business on June 23, 2008. — Bernama

KNM: Borsig acquisition completed

KNM GROUP BHD
Price: RM6.40
Fair Value: RM7.26


• Acquisition of Borsig of Germany for RM1.7bn completed. The completion is slightly ahead schedule.
KNM would now concentrate on intergrating the new acquisitions into the group.
• Upgraded PAT guidance for FY09 from RM700m to RM750m arising from higher average selling prices
(ASP) as the company moves up the technological curve. ASP to improve from RM18,000 per mt in
FY08 to RM22,000 per mt in FY09.
• Profit guidance is based on current orders in hand and respective subsidiary company’s order flow.
Synergistic benefits arising from cross utulisation of resources (like central purchasing, treasury, central
engineering and costing, etc) are not taken into account.
• Capacity for FY08 is 160,000mt p.a. while in FY09 it will be 185,300mt p.a. Capacity utilisation would be
90% in FY09 as Borsig’s low- to medium-end fabrication work would be outsourced to Malaysia as part
of the capacity rationalization to produce synergistic benefits and technology transfer.
• Order book stands at RM4.2bn. Tender book at RM20bn with estimated order win at RM4bn.
• Possible upgrade to earnings as KNM rationalizes the orders throughout the group. Would also be
opening a new area of growth via the provision of maintenance services of especially of Borsig’s highend
process equipment. KNM would be applying for a tax waiver for its Borsig acquisition. Based on the
acquisition price of RM1.7bn, it is likely that the tax credit would stretch over 5 years of more.
• Borsig provides a new market to KNM i.e. Europe. Moreover, with a more complete product range from
low to high-end the expanded KNM group can now bid for high margin big orders.
• Orders flow visibility is high over the next few years as companies scramble to take advantage of the
high oil price.
• Upgraded our fair value to RM7.26 on account of improved PAT in FY09 and removal of 10% risk
discount from our PER target of 15x. The discount was incorporated due to the yet to be completion of
the Borsig acquisition. Upside potential is 13.4%.
• It is possible that KNM be rerated to a higher PER of 18x on an improving equity market and the return
of risk adverse investors. We also note that Asia Pacific Re Fidelity JP Morgan, Bournemouth holds
115.3m or 10.9% of KNM for its various funds. Based on a PER of 18x, fair value is RM8.70 (x-all -
RM2.90) giving a potential upside of 36%. BUY maintained.
Worth noting, what we said previously about KNM, which we recap below.
• Has ability to source out and acquire poorly performing companies and turn them around
• The acquired companies come with higher technology and new customers, hence expanding its product
offering and customers base and markets.
• Besides manufacturing capability, the M&A also adds to manufacturing capacity
• Current acquisitions are successful companies with even higher technology (hence, higher margins) and
entry into new segment of the oil and gas sector
• Has a good risk management system in the face volatile raw material prices and currency. KNM adopts
a policy of hedging its exposure in currency and raw materials via forward contracts for currency and
back-to-back arrangement with its suppliers for raw materials.
• Adopts central monitoring of vital business functions i.e. contracts tendering, treasury, finance and
procurement help keep cost in check and risk acceptable.


From Jupiter Securities

稅收降低‧購德公司協同效應 科恩馬財測上修

(吉隆坡)科恩馬集團（KNM，7164；主板工業產品組）因稅收降低和收購德國伯西格集團偕同效應，獲達證券上修2009財政年盈利預測，顯著合約競標烘托其盈利前景展望。

達證券因科恩馬集團的有效稅收從19.1%減至13.6%，以及整合伯西格盈利比預期中快速，上修科恩馬集團盈利預測11%至7億6050萬令吉。2008財政年凈利則料達4億5810萬令吉。

手握42億合約

目前，該公司手握總值42億令吉的合約，其中55%來自現有的營運，其餘則來自收購德國伯西格集團（Borsig NV）等公司的貢獻。

“科恩馬集團正競標200億令吉的合約，成功率達25%。”

分析員指出，上述合約總值仍未完全反映龐大的潛能，尤其是許多油業鉅子公佈龐大的資本開銷將在明年開始招標。舉例來說，科恩馬集團旗下客戶如日本日揮株式會社（JGC）、美國福陸公司（Fluor）、千代田化工建設株式會社（Chiyoda）和Technip公司，皆是競標沙地阿拉伯國家石油公司總值4190億令吉合約的前線競標者。

與此同時，該集團收購伯西格後的協同效應揮發，進一步加強盈利展望。伯西格在歐州市場地位顯著，整合後的銷售組合在區域和領域顯著改變。

亞洲市場貢獻料減少

分析員估計亞洲市場貢獻將在明年減少至38%，其餘國家貢獻將從去年的20%顯著增加至50%。高處理設備業務的貢獻，則從30%走高至55%。

科恩馬集團有望在2011年攫取全球配備市場逾5%佔有率。在消化伯西格收購計劃後，可能再度出手收購。

達證券給予該股“買進”評級，目標價上調至8令吉20仙。

星洲日報／財經‧2008.06.07



我的话:

今天，我暂时把KNM卖了，小赚一点钱，原因是对后市抱着谨慎的态度。有机会，我会买回的。

KNM Challenge Limits

Borsig To Come In 2H

KNM’s 1Q08 earnings came in within expectations. Similar to last year, 1Q profits were typically weaker due to festive holidays. Operating margin improved to 19.5% vs 17.6% in the same period last year, indicating more higher-end process equipments were delivered. In 2H08, Borsig will start contributing to earnings and it is estimated that Borsig will bring in an additional RM260m net profit to the company on a full year basis. The acquisition is expected to be completed in the 1st week of June, with payment to be settled by a €450m bridging facility provided by Maybank. The subsequent RM1.1bn fund-raising exercise will be completed in mid- June hence there should be minimal risk for the deal. Our earnings estimates for FY08 and FY09 are based on the assumption of zero integration benefits. Synergies will likely come in only from 2010. Maintain Buy and RM8.40 fair value.

Earnings on track.

KNM’s 1Q08 net profits were inline with our estimates. Turnover and net earnings were 26% and 41% better than the same period last year. Besides the boost in profits from Borsig, the new capacity from recent acquisitions such as the Edmonton plant in Canada and Ellimetal in Belgium will start kicking in from 2H this year. Operating margins imrpoved. The continuous effort to fabricate more higher-value added process equipments has led operating margin to improve by 2%pt from 1Q07.

Status of Borsig.

Unlike the recent cancellation of the RM50m acquisition of Pisces, given the size of Borsig which worth RM1.67bn, we think this acquisition should have minimal risk. The €450m bridging facility provided by Maybank will be used to settle the payment which will be due in the 1st week of June. What is left is the US$350m exchangeable bond, which we believe may be denominated in Ringgit given its currency strength and domestic interest rate environment. Conversion ratio for the exchangeable bond could range from 1.3–1.4x.

Still a Buy.

We keep our earnings forecast unchanged. KNM could also potentially benefit from the tax re-investment allowance scheme in Malaysia. As such, Borsig’s typical 20% net margin generated in Germany previously can well be replicated. However, we have not factored in the lower tax rate, pending management’s guidance if the application is successful. Our FY09 fair value is on an ex-right basis, taken into account the dilution effects from rights and bonus issue as well as the exchangeable bond.

From: OSK Research 28 May 2008

Company Profile:

KNM Group Berhad was incorporated in Malaysia as a private limited company under the Companies Act, 1965 on 22nd July 2000 and was subsequently converted into a public limited company on 12th September 2000.KNM Group Berhad is principally an investment holding company while its subsidiary and associated companies are principally involved in integrated systems design and engineering, international procurement, manufacture of process equipments for the oil, gas, petrochemical and minerals processing industries, testing capabilities, site assembly, commissioning and maintenance.

首选油气股:KNM

今天，买进一张KNM作为短线投资。

原因很简单:-
KNM是热门炒作的石油与天然气股首选；
热衷于併購活动以提高營業額；
今天，KNM大股东还有买进自己的股票。请去看Bursa Announcement;
还有红股1粒送2粒，通常ex-date之前会炒一炒;
TA方面，连续跌了4天后，股价有反弹的迹象，全属个人意见。


相关的新闻如下:

(吉隆坡）科恩馬集團（KNM，7164；主板工業產品組）看好油氣領域將保持榮景，預計在併購協同效應揮發，以及產能提升帶動下，現財政年盈利表現料顯著提升。

該公司董事經理李瑞興表示，國際油價高漲，帶動石油與天然氣領域投資持續升溫，市場對設備的需求持續殷切，公司料可持續種充獲利。

“油價是否觸頂仍不得而知，但只要不傷及全球經濟元氣，我們將可持續獲利。”
6月完成併購德國伯西格

此外，他指出，隨著德國伯西格集團（Borsig NV）併購案於下月完成，料可擴大銷售網路，也公司將轉移製造焦點至中高端產品，擴大整體價值鏈與賺幅。

“伯西格擁有卓越科技技術，預料能提供公司4至5項新產品，加上其在熱轉換器處理設施的全球龍頭地位，將提升公司在產品種類和銷售成績。”

他說，伯西格集團預計全年可取得約12億至13億令吉營業額，寄望當中50%可納入賬面，以為公司現財政年盈利帶來顯著效益。

科恩馬集團是於今年3月宣佈，通過發售附加股和債券方式，以3億5000萬歐元（約16億6900萬令吉）全面收購德國伯西格集團，以提升旗下產品價值鏈，讓集團成為石油與天然氣領域製造配件的一站式中心。

他指出，可轉換債券發售計劃有望於下月進行，但市況發展將是左右發售期的主要關鍵。
“我們將在市況轉好時進行發售，以取得較好的價格。”

另一方面，他披露，隨著產能擴充計劃的落實，公司現財政年產能將陸續增加，可為盈利表現提供扶持。
產能提升‧首季盈利揚41%

“首季盈利在產能提升下，上揚約41%，期望在產能陸續提高幫助下，盈利增長速度能延續全年。”

至於進一步併購計劃，李瑞興表示，公司未來1至2年將專注消化新公司所帶來的協同效應，惟若有良好機會浮現，將作考慮。

“併購是提升科技和產品的最快捷徑，畢竟研發需時見效，但我們並不急於一時，將以強化公司盈利、提供新科技和產品的外國公司為重。”


星洲日報／財經‧2008.05.31

照片:YU HASEBE

Higher steel prices may erode KNM’s margins

THE rising prices of steel has raised concerns about KNM Group Bhd ‘s potential earnings, in anticipation that the process equipment manufacturer’s margins may be eroded if it fails to lock in the price of the material it buys from steel millers.

In a research note, Aseambankers Research said steel millers might be reluctant to lock in forward sales of their products in the future to ride on the surging prices for the material. Due to KNM’s scale of operations, which requires substantial amount of steel, it currently secures its steel supply directly from regional steel millers at a pre-agreed price.

“Nevertheless, we think the unique relationship (between KNM and steel millers) may be short-lived, as millers may soon be reluctant to lock in forward sales in light of soaring steel prices.

As such, KNM’s margins may see some weakness in the coming quarters,” said Aseambankers which kept its buy call for KNM with a target price of RM6.50.

Meanwhile, AmResearch Sdn Bhd said that KNM’s earnings in the first quarter ended March 2008 (1QFY08) came in within the research firm’s estimates, accounting for 13% of its financial year 2008 (FY08) forecast. AmResearch expects KNM’s second half earnings to account for 70% of full-year earnings.

This is due to contributions from its three foreign subsidiaries — Borsig, Ellimetal, and HZM Companies. KNM’s earnings growth will also be underpinned by 10 additional fabrication facilities this year.

These include KNM’s two new plants in Canada and Saudi Arabia, Ellimetal’s two facilities in Belgium, HZM’s two entities in Brazil, and Borsig’s four plants in Germany.

“As utilisation rates for all its plants are close to optimum, KNM will give preference to high-value and high-margin projects ahead.

“This will lift KNM’s average selling price per tonne of process equipment going forward,” said AmResearch, which reiterated its buy call on KNM with a target price of RM8.20.

AmResearch’s 18 times price-to-earnings ratio (PER) valuation for KNM is higher than the 12 times average derived from locally listed peers. But the research firm said KNM’s higher valuation is justified due to, among others, its above average return on equity, and operating margins, besides its strong earnings visibility.

Aseambankers, meanwhile, said it did not expect KNM shares to outperform as the stock had already recovered by 42% from its recent low.

KNM saw its net profit jumped 41.3% to RM54.13 million in the first quarter ended March 2008, from RM38.32 million a year earlier, helped by a larger production capacity, and more jobs in hand. Revenue rose 26.3% to RM331.22 million from RM262.22 million.

“The board is confident that the group’s results for FY08 will exceed the financial performance of the group for FY07,” KNM said in its quarterly filings to Bursa Malaysia.

In February this year, KNM, which counts oil and gas firms, and miners as clients, had proposed to raise up to RM2.2 billion from a rights and bond issue to grow organically and acquire rivals. Subsequent to the rights issue, it also announced a two-for-one bonus issue. These exercises would expand its share capital base and lower its gearing level.


The Edge Daily 30 May 2008