Monday, June 30, 2008

政治不明朗衝擊 馬股市值上半年縮水1529億


(吉隆坡30日訊)經過308政治海嘯蹂躪后,國內今年上半年政治不明朗陰霾籠罩,加上油價高企,導致高通脹壓力加劇,馬股隆綜指上半年共挫跌17.9%或258.46點,市值大幅縮水超過14%或1528億5000萬令吉。

綜指今早微跌3.56點迎市,以1186.98點報開后,在藍籌股領跌下,跌跌不休。

休市時,綜指報1182.47點,跌8.07點,半日成交量僅1億4665萬3000股。

截至6月27日閉市,馬股市值報9044億8000萬令吉,較今年1月底的1兆573億3000萬令吉,暴跌14%。

馬股市值在今年首兩個月皆維持在1兆令吉以上水平,惟在3月大幅縮水至9523億2000萬令吉,爾后連續4個月皆無法回返至1兆令吉關卡。

綜指今日閉市跌3.97點,今年上半年以1186.57點掛收,較去年12月31日的1445.03點封關指數暴挫17.9%,及比去年同期的1354.38點按年萎縮約12.4%。

另外,全球經濟不明朗,及國內政局動盪不安,導致投資者退場觀望,馬股今日全日交投不振,成交量只有3億7053萬6200股。

全年目標1200點

回顧首半年,大選后,綜指在3月10日勁挫至1173.22點,雖然4月及5月期間已逐漸回揚,惟在5月中至6月,在高通脹、利率隱憂、經濟成長放緩及政治不明朗等眾多因素拖累下,影響投資情緒,綜指走勢再度走軟。

黃氏星展維克斯指出,根據綜指過去5年紀錄,目前綜指交易水平偏低。

“惟政治因素、經濟成長放緩及消費意願走弱,料將拖低綜指中短期走勢。”

該券商指出,今年全年綜指目標維持在1200點。

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Inflation in UAE stands at 12%


By Babu Das Augustine, Banking Editor
Published: June 15, 2008, 00:06


Dubai: Inflation in the UAE is estimated at 12 per cent while the rate in Abu Dhabi increased from 10.7 per cent in December last year to 11.5 per cent at the end of March, Abu Dhabi's Department of Planning and Economy (DPE) said in a report on Saturday.

Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund had estimated inflation for 2008 at nine per cent.

The report attributes the high figures to the increase in consumer prices, costly rents and fuel, and soaring costs of goods and services.

While rising liquidity, low interest rates and easy bank loans have contributed, the report observes that the declining value of the dollar, to which the dirham is pegged, has contributed to the rising cost of imports.

According to the report, last year the country witnessed increases in housing rents, the cost of production and prices of goods and services.

DPE estimates that during the first three months of this year, inflation surged past 11.5 per cent while the index for rents, electricity and water was up 18.21 per cent from a year earlier.

The index for food, beverages and tobacco gained 19.78 per cent.

While DPE identifies rent as the single most important component, it acknowledges other factors such as the declining value of the dollar and the surging liquidity from oil surpluses as major contributors to rising prices.

Upward pressure

The high liquidity has applied upward pressure on the real exchange rates. In the absence of monetary policy tools and flexible exchange rates, the pressure on the dirham is reflected in high prices. Because of the peg, the UAE central bank usually shadows US interest rate moves, hampering the fight against inflation.

"The interest rates prevailing in the market merely demonstrate a response to external conditions [US interest rates], but do not do not reflect the real internal situation," DPE said.

Have your say
How has the current cost of living affected you? Are there any significant changes in your lifestyle? Tell us at letter2editor@gulfnews.com or fill in the form bellow to send your comments.


--------------------------------------------------------------
Your comments

It has become very difficult to survive here in UAE because of huge inflation ,increase in consumer prices, costly rents and fuel whatever we are earning that much we are spending ,no saving nothing
Mohammed
Sharjah,UAE
Posted: June 15, 2008, 09:29

NO COMMENTS...i DO NOT THINK IT STANDS ON 12%
AMR
Dubai,UAE
Posted: June 15, 2008, 08:40

The basic necessities remain there. You can not cut costs especially when you are living with kids and want to offer them the best facilities. The effect is on saving which are dented to a large extent. The saving which were estimated to be around AED 7000-8000 pm having shrunk to AED 3000-4000 pm. hence you can see the effects. It takes time to bring out a change in life style especially when you are used to a certain standardised life style and formed a social network.
Pradeep
dubai,UAE
Posted: June 15, 2008, 08:32

I can't save out of my pay cheque any more. In addition planning anything that require financial commitment is really difficult nowadays.
Wissam
Abu Dhabi,UAE
Posted: June 15, 2008, 07:36

The main factor which is really effecting people is ever rising rentals. Govt should take measures in this regard. Most of the people have to spend more than 50% of their income as rental.
Imran
Sharjah,UEA
Posted: June 15, 2008, 01:22

Would you retire in Dubai?



Once Dubai was considered a place for expatriates to stay for a couple of years, make some money and then leave. Today, as the emirate continues to thrive, its expat community is also flourishing, with many not only staying longer but also making plans to retire here.

Overseas visitors too are discovering the quality of life in Dubai. While some are looking for a comfortable and convenient base for family holidays, others are recognising the benefits of owning a property as a potential retirement retreat.

Is Dubai now competing with the likes of Spain and France for British buyers seeking a 'place in the sun' in the second home and retirement market?

The answer may be 'not yet'. But there are a number of factors which seem to have increased the popularity of the emirate among retirees.

First, expatriates are staying longer in the UAE. No longer considered a short-term assignment, the average time spent here by expats is now nine years, according to a survey conducted by Zurich International Life and released in December 2007. The survey also says that only one per cent choose to stay for the longer term, i.e. over 20 years, which hints at the limited number of people who may be staying till retirement age.

But there are expatriates who are staying longer, bringing their families with them, and creating a lifestyle. When faced with a decision to either go back to their home countries or stay in Dubai, an increasing number is opting to retire in the Gulf. Furthermore, some retirees are moving to Dubai because they have family already living there and want to be closer to them. No statistics are available of their numbers, but you can meet them among your neighbours or social networks. And they all have their reasons for retiring in Dubai (see sidebar).

Then comes the property factor. With other housing markets around the world cooling, and even beginning to crash, Gulf retirees are looking to stretch their nest eggs further.

Dubai is not a cheap option - many analysts are predicting house prices in the emirate will soon match or even surpass London - but overseas buyers are being wooed by the UAE's stable economy and the promise of healthy tax-free returns on their investments.

Again this is still a limited buyer market for property developers. Better Homes, one of the UAE's major real estate agents, says there is not a trend yet towards buying property for retirement.

Manuela Reis, head of residential sales at Better Homes, said, "With the [real estate] market growing rapidly, we have seen an increase in all types of buyers. In terms of the purchase of retirement homes specifically, there doesn't appear to be a trend. However, as the market shifts towards the end user, this may change."

Survey

A recent survey by Mercer, global provider of consulting, outsourcing and investment services, found that a number of elements were combining to entice expatriates to either stay longer or to permanently relocate. Key among them is greater mobility between jobs, with changes in legislation giving more choice. However, the trend to stay longer in Dubai has also resulted in many expatriates losing their home country pension schemes. This has, in turn, prompted an increase in employer-provided supplementary benefits.

While only eight per cent of the multinationals surveyed by Mercer currently provide a supplementary pension plan in the UAE, 65 per cent of companies surveyed said they were looking into changing their benefits provision, including the setting up of supplementary plans.

Mercer's Callum Burns-Green says that more and more expatriates are now seeking pensions advice in the UAE.

"There is a definite trend for workers to stay longer. With 85 per cent of employees in Dubai being expatriate, there is increased demand for private income schemes," he adds.

"The UAE could be seen as a good retirement base for many who perceive a deterioration of standards of living in places such as the United Kingdom, and are opting for Dubai in terms of better lifestyle, tax-free benefits and low levels of crime and high levels of personal safety," he claims.

Burns-Green adds that as the UAE does not impose salary caps or tax restrictions on local pension plans, financial planners are, therefore, given a blank sheet of paper when it comes to introducing new policies, which gives great flexibility to clients and sections of their workforce.

UAE-based financial advisory company Globaleye is also targeting the expatriate community by teaming up with Hong Kong-based Chesteron Consulting. According to Daniel O'Riordan, joint CEO of Chesterton-Globaleye, Gulf companies with international ambitions need to upgrade their employee benefits if they want to attract and retain quality staff in an increasingly competitive global markets.

"The region's labour laws here were drawn up in the 1970s when circumstances were very different. Expatriates came for a few years and then returned home. Now that people are buying homes and settling here and will soon be retiring, they need to feel that they have financial security. Employee benefits schemes play an increasingly important role in attracting and retaining the right people," says O'Riordan.

A proposed new pensions' savings law in the UAE could also have an important impact on expatriate pension provision. According to recent reports, the General Authority for Pensions and Social Insurance is studying options to bring expatriates in the public and private sectors under the national pensions' scheme.

Healthcare

Furthermore, healthcare has become an important factor for anyone considering retirement in Dubai. According to online service Xpatulator March 2008 worldwide cost of living comparison, Dubai ranks as the 32nd most expensive city in the world (most expensive city is London, and comes in 28th in terms of the cost of general healthcare and medical insurance.

Medical costs are definitely a concern for those living on pension, but retirees who can afford them are also aware that the standards of healthcare provided are very good and compare favourably with Europe and America. Physicians and other health professionals are well-trained and attracted to Dubai through high salaries and world-class facilities.

A recent government announcement to make health cover mandatory for Emiratis and expats alike in Dubai may bring some good news for resident retirees. However, the final framework of this cover is still unclear.

For now, healthcare insurance providers have already stepped up the mark to offer packages specifically geared to foreigners. For example, Dubai Insurance Company and international expatriate insurance specialist William Russell have recently joined together to launch a range of international health, income protection and life insurance plans designed specifically for expatriates. Through its Corporate GlobalHealth plan, members will have access to an expanding network of clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies throughout the Gulf.

The reason for developing those facilities, according to William Russell's Adrian Shaw, is their belief that Dubai is now attracting an increasing number of expatriates wanting to retire to the Emirate.

He adds that apart from the quality retail, leisure and housing facilities, Dubai's healthcare system is also a major draw.

"Expats choosing Dubai as their retirement home can be confident that they will be able to benefit from private healthcare facilities as good as any available in other popular worldwide expatriate destinations. The key, however, is to ensure that they can afford treatment, and good quality international private medical insurance is essential.

"Expatriates also need to give careful consideration to their long-term needs as they become older, as residential care is expensive and it is outside the scope of a private medical insurance," he warns.

The author is a freelance writer based in Dubai.

美股收盘下跌,受油价上涨和金融担忧影响


美国股市收盘下跌,受到原油价格不断上涨和对金融业的担忧影响,道琼斯工业平均价格指数缩小了跌幅,盘中曾一度跌至熊市区域,两天跌幅高达465点。

道琼斯指数收盘下跌106.91点,至11346.51点,创下2002年9月份以来的最低收盘水平,跌幅0.93%。盘中道琼斯指数曾跌破11331.62点,这是标志股市步入熊市的分界线,通常以收盘峰值至收盘低位下挫20%为界。标准普尔500指数下跌4.77点,至1278.38点,跌幅0.37%,距3月份创下的52周收盘低位只差5点左右,盘中也曾一度跌破此位。纳斯达克综合指数下跌5.74点,至2315.63点,跌幅0.25%。

经济数据:

美国商务部(Commerce Department)周五公布,5月份个人支出较上月增长0.8%,为2007年11月份增长1.0%以来的最大增幅。4月份个人支出修正后为增长0.4%,初步数据为增长0.2%。报告显示,经过季节性因素调整后,5月份个人收入较上月增长1.9%,为2005年9月份增长3.2%以来的最大增幅。4月份个人收入经修正后为增长0.3%,初步数据为增长0.2%。

路透社/密歇根大学(Reuters/University of Michigan) 6月份消费者信心指数从5月份的59.8降至56.4,为1980年5月创下51.7以来的最低水平。

个股动态:

周五金融业的前景再次黯淡,惠誉评级公司(Fitch Ratings)警告称,信用卡发卡行可能面临更多损失,因消费者还贷情况有恶化的趋势。

在信用卡发卡行中,摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)跌1.27美元,至35.05美元,跌幅3.5%,为道琼斯指数成份股中百分比跌幅最大的一个。花旗集团跌42美分,至17.25美元,跌幅2.4%,为1997年以来最低收盘水平;Washington Mutual跌24美分,至4.80美元,跌幅4.8%,该股今年迄今已累计下挫65%。

美林公司(Merrill Lynch)跌35美分,至2.70美元,6月份以来累计下挫26%。高盛(Goldman Sachs)指出,美林公司和其他经纪商第二财季在信贷市场的对冲操作可能弄巧成拙。

非消费必需品类股中,通用汽车涨12美分,至11.55美元。该股周四收于1974年起来的最低水平。该公司急于对策略进行调整以应对油价升至每桶140美元这一事实。与此同时,一家信用评级机构和一家大型经纪商均对通用汽车的资本状况提高关注。

福特汽车(Ford Motor)跌9美分,至4.98美元。周五全美证交所航空类股指数跌至有史以来最低水平。

Friday, June 27, 2008

第一次买大众银行


今天我买进大众银行以做短线投资。今天,买不到最低,但是也是低的价钱。下一季的财报应该会在7月15日左右公布,也同时会宣布中期股息,两毛钱扣息应该不是问题。另外一个问题,基金会不会在6月尾或下个星期一搞一搞粉窗粉饰,是值得期待的。

至于,主要种植股也开始回掉,首选还是IOICorp,比较安全的买进价是RM7.10或一下;Asiatic则是RM7.80之间;Sime Darby则是RM8.90或一下。再多几天交易日,应该可以达到目标价,需要耐心等待。

美股收盘下跌,道琼斯指数创下一年多新低


道琼斯工业平均价格指数跌至一年多来的最低水平,通用汽车(General Motors)则创下四分之一世纪以来的最低价,原因是原油价格再创历史新高,而高盛(Goldman Sachs)再度引发了人们对于汽车类股及经纪公司类股的忧虑。

道琼斯指数收盘下挫358.41点,至11453.42点,跌幅3.03%,为2006年9月11日以来的最低收盘水平。标准普尔500指数跌38.82点,至1283.15点,跌幅2.94%,为3月17日即贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)崩盘以来的最低收盘位,距52周收盘低位只差约10点。纳斯达克综合指数大跌79.89点,至2321.37点,跌幅3.33%,录得1月4日以来最大跌幅,创下4月15日以来的最低收盘水平。

油价再创新高,首次突破每桶140美元,数月以来,油价给股市特别是汽车生产商以及航空类股带来冲击。

FuturePath Trading期货经纪商兼分析师Frank Lesh表示,经济面临困境,一方面是经济疲软,另一方面是通货膨胀。要对可怕的经济滞胀问题保持警惕。

道琼斯指数成份股中,通用汽车跌幅最大,该股下跌1.38美元,至11.43美元,跌幅11%,跌至1974年以来的最低价位。克莱斯勒(Chrysler LLC)一位发言人称,克莱斯勒资本充裕,该言论旨在缓解公司债市场上对该公司破产的担忧,以及消除投资者对汽车类股的恐惧。与此同时,高盛将通用汽车的评级下调至卖出,称从通用汽车消耗现金的情况来看这家汽车巨头可能需要融资。惠誉国际评级(Fitch ratings)下调了通用汽车和克莱斯勒的信用评级,称两家公司现金流下降。通用汽车5月1日公布,第一财政季度亏损32.5亿美元。该汽车巨头曾在3月31日表示,拥有239亿美元可用流动资金。

银行和经纪行类股也跌至信贷危机爆发以来的最低水平。美国银行(Bank of America)是今日道琼斯指数中百分比跌幅第二大的成份股,该股下跌1.80美元,至24.81美元,跌幅6.8%;创2001年以来的最低收盘价。美国银行警告称,作为与抵押贷款商Countrywide Financial合并计划的一部分,该行将裁员约7,500人。

高盛再次调整对美国经纪行类股的预期,将经纪行类股评级下调至中性,贝尔斯登垮台后,高盛曾上调了经纪行类股评级。花旗集团(Citigroup)下跌1.18美元,至17.67美元,跌幅6.3%;高盛警告称,花旗第二财季可能会对抵押贷款相关债券以及通过债券保险商进行的对冲交易进行更多冲减。

美林(Merrill Lynch)下跌2.41美元,至33.05美元,跌幅6.8%;摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)下跌1.59美元,至36.32美元,跌幅4.2%。


本文由道琼斯通讯社提供,获取更丰富更及时的道琼斯财经资讯,请访问WWW.DJCNEWS.COM。

闲说华尔街: 熊来了的信号


按说主要股指下跌至少20%之后熊市才算真正到来,如此看来眼下的市场还没沦落到这步田地,不过,别开玩笑了,你只要碰到以下这些事情,你就会知道熊市真的来了:

- 1.惊慌失措的投资经理会给你写一封道歉信,开头写道:我相信你一定知道6月份极具挑战性;而用作结尾的陈词滥调是:正是在这最具挑战的市场中孕育着最伟大的机会。

- 2.你告诉你老婆华尔街的危机实际上是好事一桩,因为这会让纽约的房价降下来,这样买大点宅子就会容易一些了──即便你一年多前才买了房子、家里没有孩子,而且今年能否得到奖金还是个未知数。

- 3.你再也不用在开车从纽约城到汉普顿一路要花多长时间的问题上向朋友们撒谎了。高速路上已是空空荡荡,车程真像你忽悠人时所说的那样只要1小时45分钟了。

- 4.你从公司CEO那里收到了一封奇奇怪怪、却又似曾相识的邮件,通篇都是讲公司如何如何有信心化解当前困境并愈挫愈强。然后你意识到它和你两个月前从另一位CEO那里收到的信简直就是一个模子里刻出来的。

- 5.随着你们公司年内进行第四次调整,你的办公桌又被挪了位置。你先是猜测着能坐得离老板越来越近可能是个好兆头,然后才赫然发现整个部门里裁得就剩下你和一台复印机了。

- 6. 你还记得当初听到要把银行家工作外包到印度的试行方案时大家曾怎样笑做一团的吧;待到这个计划彻底铺开时,你就再也笑不出来了,你被告知可以收拾东西走人了。

- 7.当你得知公司的既得股、非既得股以及期权价值较9个月前的峰值仅下挫50%时长舒了一口气,全然没意识到你本来有机会将手中这类资产的大部分以一个今后十年都难得一见的好价钱套现。

- 8.在连续几个月不肯承认农业热已然出现后你终于屈服了,总算认识到一家化肥企业的股票存在巨大价值,该公司目前720亿美元的市值只有两年前的十分之一。

- 9.你在公司里边溜达边告诉每一个人,你曾先知先觉地警告过他们那些交易员总会自食其果的;直到你忽然想起来那些交易员仍在管理着你的、以及大多数华尔街公司的户头。

看完这些你还是承认吧,熊真的已经来了。

Evan Newmark

Thursday, June 26, 2008

UAE ranks among world's top 10 locations to work



Dubai: The UAE is in the top ten preferred destinations for workers worldwide, according to the recent Relocating For Work survey released on Tuesday by Manpower Middle East, part of Manpower, a global employment services firm.

The survey, part of a worldwide research paper carried out by Manpower, asked 31,574 people in 27 countries about their preferred work destination, and the UAE ranked sixth.

Among workers already based in the Middle East, the UAE was the top destination, with Qatar coming fifth, Saudi Arabia eighth and Bahrain ninth.

"The results of this survey are great news for the region," said Varina Nissen, managing director of Manpower Middle East, which has operations in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

"It means that people across the world are actively seeking employment in the Middle East, which drives the quality of talent up, providing employers with more choice of top quality candidates.

"With the level of growth in the region, the demand for workers is at an all-time high. As the region continues to develop and build a reputation as a preferred destination, we are likely to see more and more people wanting to move to the Middle East for career advancement," Nissen added.

The second wave of the Zurich Wealth Monitor, a research probe into the attitudes and future financial plans of Zurich's core customer groups, questioned 700 expatriate professionals living in the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar in April. The research revealed on average that 49 per cent of expatriates living in the region felt their employer offers adequate employee benefits.

An official from Xpert HR Consultancy said the region offers best opportunities for workers with several multinational corporations, but still faces challenges like low salaries, poor housing conditions and difficult visa situations.

Perks: Pension schemes emerge

Another report from Zurich International Life (Zurich) revealed that pensions are becoming an increasingly important feature of an employee's benefits package for expatriates living in the Gulf region.

With 21 per cent of firms in the UAE and Bahrain and 13 per cent in Qatar already including pensions as part of their overall package to employees, the pension penny is beginning to drop.

"Attracting and retaining employees is a major challenge for companies around the world, not least in terms of cost. But in the Middle East, a market where finding and retaining staff is increasingly difficult and employees are looking to secure their future, offering pensions is now a vital component of the employment offer. Not only are pensions a very attractive benefit from the employee's perspective, they can also prove appealing for employers in terms of helping to retain staff," said Paul Haran, Zurich's Middle East Regional Director.

2020年达30%土著股权目标 印裔股权3年来却微跌0.1%


首相阿都拉表示,政府希望通过第九大马计划,在2020年前达至30%土著股权的目标。

在2004年至2006年期间,土著从2004年的18.9%提高至19.4%。

至于非土著股权方面,也从2004年的40.6%提高至2006年的43.9%。唯有印裔的股权减低了0.1%,即从1.2%微跌至1.1%。

2010年达印裔股权1.5%

不过,阿都拉今早在国会下议院提呈的第九大马计划中期检讨报告时强调,印裔所占有的股权价值仍有所提升,在上述期间增加了9%或5亿7千520万令吉。

他说,政府将通过各种技术与企业家培训计划,在2010年提升印裔企业股权至1.5%.

土著与华裔收入悬殊缩减

他说,土著与华裔的收入悬殊也有改善,从2004年的1对1.64缩减至2007年的1对1.54;土著对印裔的收入比例则从1对1.27,缩减至1对1.20。

他表示,大马家庭平均收入从2004年的3249令吉增加至2007年的3686令吉,所有族群的收入皆有提升。

华裔家庭平均收入增3%

在2007年,土著的平均家庭收入增加了5.2%,至每月3156令吉;华裔增加3%,至每月4853令吉,而印裔也增加3.2%,至3799令吉。

阿都拉说,城市与乡村的家庭平均收入差距,也从2004年的1对2.11缩减至2007年的1对1.91,已经超越了第九大马计划预定在2010年达至的1对2的目标。

他指出,2006至2007年的国内生产总值超越6%的目标,达到6.1%,人均收入也增加10.6%至2万3066令吉。

强调东马除贫努力已见效

首相表示,政府已经成功逐渐减少大马的赤贫一群,从2004年的5.7%至2007年的3.6%;贫穷家庭在同时期也减少了33%。

城乡贫穷悬殊的问题,也从2004年的2.5%减少至2007年的2%;至于乡村的贫穷率则降低了4.8%。

阿都拉强调,政府除贫的努力成功见效,尤其是在沙巴与砂拉越;沙巴贫穷率从2006年的23%减少至2007年的16%。砂拉越则从2004年的7.5%减少至2007年的4.2%。

“更令人骄傲的是,目前的赤贫率从2004年的1.2%减少至2007年的0.7%。赤贫家庭也减少了43%。”

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

突破第100个部落格


终于来到了第100个部落格,本身写的部落格不多,大多数是抄与贴,供网友们的参考。也没有什么时间去做研究,毕竟资金不大,只能做短线投资。

最近,油价高涨造成了连锁性的反应,其他物价与服务业也更着涨,但是工钱还是保持一样。据说,屋价也要涨30巴仙,因为钢铁,洋灰,运输费一起涨。另外,我看到一个报道,来自建筑工会的代表,谈到大马拥有充足的农作物与天然资源,如油棕,橡胶,石油与天然气,但是人民的生活水准与收入却不高。现在,还要面对充满挑战性的时刻,因油价高涨,人民购买力弱了。很多发展商要退迟发展计划,或重新评估工程开销,同时多出来的费用将会转嫁给消费者。

有时,我觉得政府不大会管理国家的经济。谈到人民年度平均收入,都比起许多国家落后,虽然我国拥有丰富的天然资源。目前,很多人才都出国掏金,如往中东,那里的薪水比这里多2至3倍。而大马却停留在原地踏步,薪酬竞争力输也输给没有天然资源的邻国。再迟点,我国将会沦为人才流失国,像是菲律宾那样出口菲佣于他国。

财富增长 西方不亮东方亮


在全球百万富翁名单上,美国人的比例正在走下坡路。

据周二公布的一份研究报告显示,去年新兴市场百万富翁人数的增幅是美国的五倍。这是自2003年首次对美国和主要新兴市场进行比较以来,二者增速差距最大的一次。

据美林公司(Merrill Lynch & Co.)和Capgemini公布的《世界财富报告》(World Wealth Report)显示,2007年巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国的百万富翁总数增加了19%,相比之下美国的增幅只有3.7%,是2002年以来增幅最小的一年。

美国在全球百万富翁总数中仍占有主导地位。美国有300多万个金融百万富翁(可投资资产不低于100万美元),较2006年增加了10万人。

尽管如此,去年百万富翁的增多有很大一部分来自新兴市场,其中巴西、中国、印度和俄罗斯共新增13.3万,总数达到81.7万人。去年印度的百万富翁增加了23%,增幅居全球之冠。

在持续数年的上升之后,美国在全球百万富翁中的占比从2006年的31%小幅降到2007年的30%。据该报告称,美国在百万富翁总资产中所占比例从2006年的31%降至2007年的29%,预计未来5年中还会进一步下降。近几年来欧洲在全球百万富翁中占比萎缩得更快,从2002年的36%降至2007年的31%。

与此同时,印度、巴西、俄罗斯和中国的百万富翁占比在过去5年中从6%上升到8%。

百万富翁的数字凸现出了经济上的现实情况:明天的富翁更有可能来自东方、而非西方。

石油和大宗商品价格的飙升、资金转而流向增长更快的新兴市场、海外更高的储蓄率,以及美元走软等诸多因素都推动了在这些曾因极度贫困而知名的国家中百万富翁和亿万富翁人数的增加。

而与此同时,美国的财富制造机器却因金融危机、信贷紧缩和房地产价格下跌而运转艰难。

虽然百万富翁的构成比例看似无足轻重,但却能给全球经济带来衍生影响。

百万富翁中东方面孔的日渐增多可能会重塑美国的投资和支出,对慈善业和企业界亦是如此。全球百万富翁手中持有的40多万亿美元的资产将越来越多地流出美国,因为新晋百万富翁更喜欢在本国进行投资。该报告预计,2009年时,全球百万富翁在北美的投资占全球总投资的比例将从2007年的42%下降至39%。

这种趋势还可能会加速全球范围内的经济不平等,因为百万富翁和亿万富翁增长最快的国家也正是那些贫富差距甚于美国的国家。

据《世界财富报告》称,财富越来越多地集中到富人、特别是超级富豪手中。去年世界上可投资资产不低于3,000万美元的超级富豪人数增加了8.8%,而其所持资产的增幅却达到了不成比例的14.5%。

在《福布斯》亿万富翁榜上,印度人占据了前八位中的四个,墨西哥的卡洛斯•斯利姆(Carlos Slim)超过比尔•盖茨(Bill Gates)成为全球第二富豪。巴菲特(Warren Buffett)位居第一,盖茨则排名第三。

总体来看,印度是去年的大赢家。该国百万富翁人数增加了23%,略高于2006年的21%。中国百万富翁人数增加了21%,巴西和俄罗斯分别增加了19%和14%。

财富创造的主要驱动力是国内生产总值(GDP)的增长、金融市场的表现和流动性。涌入海外股市的资金使首次公开募股(IPO)和可用于并购的股票出现了快速增长。

这刺激了私人银行家所说的“流动性事件”的增多,一家公司的所有者或是管理者能将股份兑现,进而一跃成为百万富翁甚至亿万富翁。

哈佛大学的经济学家肯尼斯•罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说,这些国家的金融市场正在深化,使得很多企业家能够将旗下业务上市变现。

全球财富的转移也使奢侈品经济以及大量面向富人的公司的竞争格局发生了变化。

苏富比拍卖公司(Sotheby's)估计,在2月份伦敦举行的拍卖中,拍得印象派和现代艺术品的俄罗斯买家掏的钱占总销售额的比重为15%,而相比之下,2007年时这一比例为9%。

巨型游艇制造商曾经主要面向美国和欧洲客户,如今它们在俄罗斯、印度和巴西的业务也很繁忙。游艇经纪公司Burgess表示,新兴市场可能会在未来5年内占到该公司业务的一半,目前只有三分之一。

Burgess首席执行长乔纳森•贝克特(Jonathan Beckett)说,说到超级游艇,印度将是下一个俄罗斯。

隶属于General Dynamics Corp.的私人喷气式飞机制造商Gulfstream的业务增长正越来越多地来自美国以外的国家。该司发言人表示,尽管2007年北美的喷气机订单增加了30%,但还是输给了海外订单,这在公司49年的历史中是头一次。

2008年第一季度,海外订单增幅56%,超过了北美订单44%的增幅。

Gulfstream的发言人罗伯特•巴格涅特(Robert Baugniet)说,很多新增的买家都“不习惯等待”,当有人听说他们订购的G550要到2013年第一季度才能交货时,他们就会把装满现金的手提箱摇得格格作响,不明白为什么要等。


Robert Frank

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Country Awards: Best local houses, part 1


We are pleased to announce the winners of our Country Awards for Achievement. Today, the best domestic firms in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand.


Our annual look at the best financial services firms in each country around the region has produced the following list of top domestic houses. A full write-up of the reasoning behind the individual awards, which refer to the period from June 2007 to May 2008, will be published in the July issue of FinanceAsia magazine.

China

Best Bank
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China advertisement

Best Investment Bank
China International Capital Corp

Best Bond House
Citic Securities

Best Equity House
China International Capital Corp

Best Broker
Citic Securities

Best Cash Management Bank
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

Best Trade Finance Bank
Bank of China

Best Foreign Exchange Bank
Bank of China

Best Private Bank
China Merchants Bank


Indonesia

Best Bank
Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Best Investment Bank
Danareksa Securities

Best Bond House
Danareksa Securities

Best Equity House
Danareksa Securities

Best Broker
Bahana Securities

Best Cash Management Bank
Mandiri Bank

Best Trade Finance Bank
PT Bank Danamon

Best Foreign Exchange Bank
Bank Central Asia


Malaysia

Best Bank
Public Bank

Best Investment Bank
CIMB

Best Bond House
CIMB

Best Equity House
CIMB

Best Broker
CIMB

Best Cash Management Bank
Maybank

Best Trade Finance Bank
Maybank

Best Foreign Exchange Bank
Maybank

Best Private Bank
CIMB Private Banking


Philippines

Best Bank
Bank of the Philippine Islands

Best Investment Bank
BDO Capital

Best Bond House
BDO Capital

Best Equity House
ATR-Kim Eng Capital Partners

Best Broker
ATR-Kim Eng Securities

Best Cash Management Bank
Bank of the Philippine Islands

Best Foreign Exchange Bank
Bank of the Philippine Islands

Best Private Bank
BDO Private Bank


South Korea

Best Bank
Shinhan Bank

Best Investment Bank
Korea Development Bank

Best Bond House
Korea Investment & Securities

Best Equity House
Korea Investment & Securities

Best Broker
Samsung Securities

Best Trade Finance Bank
Korea Exchange Bank

Best Foreign Exchange Bank
Korea Exchange Bank

Best Private Bank
Samsung Securities Private Bank


Thailand

Best Bank
Siam Commercial Bank

Best Investment Bank
Kasikornbank

Best Bond House
Siam Commercial Bank

Best Equity House
Phatra Securities

Best Broker
Phatra Securities

Best Cash Management Bank
Siam Commercial Bank

Best Trade Finance
Kasikornbank

Best Foreign Exchange Bank
Siam Commercial Bank

Best Private Bank
Siam Commercial Bank



From Finance Asia 24 June 2008

Frustrated by rising cost of living in the UAE


The prospect of getting relief from the rising cost of living in the UAE seems gloomy, as a recent report confirms that the situation has become worse than ever before.

Recruitment consultant Kershaw Leonard recently released its comprehensive report on the cost of living in the UAE, compiling prices of almost all requirements of living, from air tickets, school and medical charges to golf club membership fees.

The 60-page report showed that the prices of housing, food, transportation and travel, education, medical and healthcare have all generally ramped up in the last 12 months.

The smallest increase was two per cent for the annual renewal registration of sports utility vehicles. The biggest was 122 per cent for the highest level of school fees in Dubai.

Judging by the trend in price movements, it appears that Dubai is now well on its way to raising its ranking as one of the most expensive cities in the world to live in, with inflation set to rise further, according to Kershaw Leonard managing partner Mike Hynes.

"Dubai is fast approaching Central London pricing. If you look at other reports that have been carried out, I think Dubai has been shooting up the scales, and there's no sign that it's stopping," Hynes told Gulf News.

Hynes said higher prices are almost an inevitable consequence in a city like Dubai, where a massive explosion in development is taking place.

He added that rising food prices, the new driver of inflation, as well as the proposed value-added tax (VAT), are only going to make matters worse.

"There are no signs that the rental market and the housing market, generally, are under control. So the factors, as we can see, that are driving inflation are not under control and there's no sign that they're [getting there]. So, the forecast has to be that the cost of living in Dubai is set to continue to increase."

Expectations

Marios Maratheftis, regional head of research for Standard Chartered, said the findings of the report provide further evidence that inflation expectations in the UAE are now "getting out of control".

"It is worth bearing in mind that expectations tend to be self-fulfilling, which suggests that they can translate into even higher inflation in the future. There is a need to tighten liquidity through monetary policy, and this cannot happen without altering the (US dollar exchange-rate) peg," Maratheftis said.

The rising cost of living in the UAE is influenced by a combination of global and local factors, which include world food prices, the declining US dollar and the country's strong economic growth, according to Monica Malik, chief economist at investment bank EFG-Hermes.

She said that the local capacity constraints associated with the strong investment drive spreading across the GCC are a driving force behind rising inflation levels. She noted that, in a growing economy, there is a rising demand for housing due to a huge influx of people, and when supply fails to meet demand, prices rise.

"A lot of the price increases are linked with where we are in the economic cycle right now," Malik told Gulf News.

While the report paints a gloomy picture, Piyush Mathur, regional managing director of research organisation The Nielsen Company, said it is nothing to be alarmed about, because the rising costs are being balanced out by high job prospects and state of personal finances in the UAE.

"On one side, you have education, healthcare and other costs rising, but on the other side, the job prospects and state of personal finances are increasing at a significant pace as well. So, the good side kind of balances out the negative aspect. If both sides of the pendulum are going down, then that would be a real gloomy situation," Mathur told Gulf News.

Hynes said that the rising costs are indeed affecting residents in the UAE, but there is a split as to how these are impacting people.

While those earning a good living may only have to cut back on certain "palatable" aspects, such as going out for dinner or changing beach clubs, Hynes said those who are at the bottom of the pay scale will have to face more difficult choices, such as sending the children or family back to their home countries.

Nasir Iqbal from Pakistan, who has been in Dubai for six years, said escalating prices are making him consider relocating abroad. Nasir's annual expenditure on housing has quadrupled from Dh12,000 to Dh48,000 in just one year.

And, since his salary is only enough to meet his own direct needs, Nasir said he can't afford to take his wife from Pakistan to live with him in Dubai.

"Life is tough for me. I don't have time for relaxation because I have to work from morning to evening to meet my expenses. I've been cut off from my friends also because they can't afford to live in my neighbourhood, which is a bit expensive compared to where they're staying in Dubai," Nasir said.

Anusyia Nathan from Malaysia said she has to cut back on her spending to be able to save some money, as rental and food prices are hurting her pockets.

"Now I'm paying Dh7,000 a month for my accommodation compared to Dh5,500 last year. If you spend Dh100 at the grocery now, you will go home with about five items. Last year, Dh100 can get you about six to seven basic items," Anusyia said.

According to the report, the cost of renting apartments and villas in Dubai has gone up by as little as eight per cent to as much as 77 per cent between 2007 and 2008, depending on the size and location of the property.

Confirming previous reports, Kershaw's data showed that in some areas in Dubai like International City, Al Barsha, Green Community and Dubai Marina, some apartments have posted lower increases, between eight and 12 per cent.

Prime spots

But new prime spots such as the Burj Residence in Downtown Burj Dubai have registered the biggest increase in apartment rents in one year. A two-bedroom flat in the area has increased by 42 per cent and a three-bedroom by more than half (57 per cent). In Mirdif, a four-bedroom villa rental skyrocketed by 77 per cent.

However, Dubai and Abu Dhabi seem to have outstripped the three strongest markets in the United States. Kershaw examined the rents for a two-bedroom apartment in the UAE and found that the average median monthly rents in Dubai and Abu Dhabi ($1,811 and $2,264 respectively) are higher than those in New York metro area ($1,729), San Francisco ($1,685) and Boston ($1,528).

As for food, the report confirmed that a basket of basic items that cost Dh151.50 in 2006 now costs Dh180.45, posting an almost 20 per cent increase over a two-year period.

The same scenario is reflected in the transportation and travel category. For instance, a basic taxi fare per kilometre in Dubai rose by three per cent to Dh1.75, while monthly car rentals increased by six to 80 per cent, depending on the type of vehicle. Likewise, travelling outside the country has edged up a bit, with economy air tickets to London, Philippines, Mumbai, Paris and Singapore rising by between three and 11 per cent.

Price increases in the education sector are even more dramatic. For kindergarten 1 level at schools with a Western curriculum, the maximum fees went up from Dh29,687 to Dh66,000, showing a 122 per cent increase. The significant increases were attributed to the entry of new schools, which are exempt from hike restrictions.

The upward movement in prices is likewise recorded in the medical and healthcare sector. The cost of visiting a general physician at the leading international-standard hospital in Dubai has more than tripled in four years, the report said. Middle-end hospitals showed an aggregate increase of around 20 per cent.

Yet, despite the gloomy figures, Hynes said the future of Dubai or the UAE looks "very rosy", given the influx of investments and the huge stream of expatriates and visitors.

"There's still a huge amount of investments and a huge number of people wanting to come here. There's massive opportunity to make this place really outstanding. But, to do that, you have to make sure that the people who are making it happen will stay here, and be happy to be here," he said.

Monday, June 23, 2008

今年我收第一次的股息


上个星期收到了WCT的股息,买两张WCT股,除权日获得RM66.60(已扣税),昨天快快Bank in了。我过后把WCT卖掉,这个股让我亏损RM300左右。

目前,我还是全面看淡建筑股,基于本地油价与建材涨价,减少盈利,严重的话甚至能导致亏损。

另外,马股今天出奇的强稳,跌势不高,难道已经触底?笑纳。我以为会跌20点,收市跌了11点吧了。目前,我还是退居场外观望。

止损同样有风险


面对今年以来风雨飘摇的股市,投资者不得不采取旨在止损的交易策略。但对长期投资者来说,这一策略可能只会适得其反。

止损指令是指在个股跌幅达到某个比例或股价跌至指定价位时,自动抛售股票以减少损失。至少从理论上来说,在股价下跌时自动斩仓能够使交易决策免受个人情绪左右,在市场暴跌之时──例如6月6日美国股市暴跌近400点那种情况──避免遭受更大的损失。

但对长期持有型投资者来说,这个貌似保守的策略实际上只会起到相反效果。下面介绍的是Stockbusters投资俱乐部的情况,这是个由大约25位达拉斯妇女组成的小团体,她们聚会讨论并挑选股票已经有20年的时间了。今年早些时候,俱乐部的成员经分析后决定买进两只能源股票──XTO Energy Inc.与Chesapeake Energy Corp.。

尽管该俱乐部着眼于长期投资,但成员们还是设定了止损指令;如果股价跌幅达到10%,就自动抛售上述股份。还没等俱乐部召开下一次月度例会,这两只股票就已经被自动抛售了;然而,股价又在几个星期内实现了反弹,而且还在继续上涨。俱乐部负责财务的南茜•罗伯茨(Nanci Roberts)说,“这一策略并不理想。”

为了避免止损系统自动抛售苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的股票,从而失去该股的未来收益,俱乐部成员决定不对该股设置止损指令。由于止损盘被触发,成员们此前不得不数次购回苹果股票。

这就是投资者试图跑赢股市需要面对的挑战。他们可能拥有众多投资工具,但有句老话说的好:“一个人的佳肴可能却是他人的毒药”,投资策略还得取决于各人的手段与目标。止损指令显然是把双刃剑:对兵贵神速的交易员和追赶大潮的人士来说或许屡试不爽,但对追求长期投资价值的人来说可能就是招臭棋。

嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.)、TD Ameritrade Holding Corp.以及E*Trade Financial Corp.等经纪行表示,由于股市波动加剧,投资者为求应变而寻找更为复杂的策略,他们发现此类风险管理工具的运用不断增加。E*Trade称,该行发现过去一年止损指令的运用量上升了10%;而TD Ameritrade也表示,发现这一策略的使用量出现了两位数增长。

设置止损指令很简单:网上交易的投资者只需要点几下鼠标,设定自动抛售的价格;或是建立浮动止损指令,在股价从近期高点下挫一定规模后启动抛售。

对那些盘算着是否执行止损的投资者来说,下面是几条需要考虑的因素:

了解自己。Legg Mason Capital Management的首席投资策略师麦克尔•莫布森(Michael Mauboussin)说,止损有时间地点之分,但必须与你的整体策略保持一致。

动量交易员研究股价过去的变动来判断未来走势,他们买卖某只股票的频率通常只有几周甚至几天。如果一只股票正在走低,可能就没有必要继续持仓。哪怕股价只是下跌4%或是6%,这些追随市场趋势的交易员也会决定抛售。

相比之下,长期投资者会研究一家公司的未来收益与增长前景以判断投资时机,他们希望股价能有所波动,这样通过低买高卖几年下来就能获取不错的收益。假定其他因素不变,如果在30美元买进一只股票很不错的话,那么在27美元买进就更加超值。因此,价值型投资者应会在股价下挫时考虑增持股票,在基本面而不是股价出现变化时决定抛售。

实际上,对这些投资者来说,在股价下挫10%时自动抛售这样的策略几乎只会让他们高买贱卖。一只股票可能会在一年的时间内大幅波动,交投清淡的时候更容易出现起伏。即使对大型股来说,这些日子下挫10%也不是什么新鲜事。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数30只成份股,每只股票都比去年高点至少下挫了10%。事实是,除了7只股票,其他道指成份股都较最高价暴跌了至少20%,尽管许多股票随后又有所反弹。

由于止损指令的工作原理,这一策略并不总能保证你不会遭受更大损失。一旦设定的止损价被触及,那么无论现在市场价格如何,系统都会自动抛售你的股票,哪怕市价远远低于你的意向售价。3月中旬贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns Cos.)股价崩溃时,这种情况就曾经出现过。此类情形下,一只股票可能前一分钟还是12美元,下一分钟就跌到了8美元,直接跳过了10美元的止损价格。

减损而不是试图止损。宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院(University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School)金融教授、畅销书作者杰里米•西格尔(Jeremy Siegel)认为,长期投资者总的来说应当避免止损操作。对那些担忧股价短期走势的投资者,他推荐了另外一种不同的策略:买进看跌期权,这种期权能够使你在未来某一时间以某一价格卖出股票。

一张有权卖出100股的看跌期权合约,可能成本只是你股票投资的一个零头,再加上一点佣金。但这可以作为防范股价大幅振荡的一种缓冲。如果股价确实走低,看跌期权就相应升值,从而可以抵消掉你的部分损失,缓解股价下跌带来的冲击。如果股价攀升,那么你只是失去了部分利润,就当作为短期损失买的保险好了。

保留收益。对长期持有型投资者来说,止损指令可能是最有效的锁定收益手段,而不是避免损失的手段。嘉信理财负责主动交易与投资事宜的副总裁约瑟夫•维耶特里(Joseph Vietri)说,股东们应当为股价上涨和下跌的情况制定离场计划。比如说,如果你持有的微软(Microsoft Corp.)股票从24美元暴涨到35美元,但你却还不舍不得出手,那么设在32美元的止损指令能帮助你锁定收益。如果股价进一步下跌,而你还看好该股潜力,那么你大可以再次买入。

Karen Blumenthal

亚太股市周一普遍下跌


亚太股市周一普遍下跌。美国经济前景阴云不散,而信贷危机的影响仍未褪去,使得众多市场的人气受到压制。

东京股市走低,金融类股和房地产类股领跌,上周五美国股市大幅下挫以及原油价格企稳挫伤了整体人气。日经225指数收盘跌84.61点,至13857.47点,跌幅0.6%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数下跌8.81点,至1347.93点,跌幅0.7%。

中国股市收盘大幅走低,受国际油价上涨以及上周五美国股市下跌的影响。基准上证综合指数收盘跌2.5%,至2760.42点,回吐了上周五3.0%涨幅的大部分。深证综合指数跌1.9%,至779.93点。上周五深证综指涨1.8%。

香港股市收盘走低,受美国股市上周五下挫以及有关房地产价格或将在明年下跌的担忧影响。恒生指数收盘跌30.64点,至22,714.96点,跌幅0.1%。

澳大利亚股市受到逢低吸纳买盘及财政年度末买盘的支持,未受华尔街股市上周五大幅下挫拖累。基准的S&P/ASX 200指数收盘下跌4.6点,至5283.7点,跌幅0.1%。

新加坡股市走低,受美国股市上周五下挫及通货膨胀压力持续高企拖累。海峡时报指数收盘下跌22.66点,至2979.15点,跌幅0.8%。

Sunday, June 22, 2008

欢迎游览 Mydarkforum.com



这一两天,我游览一个马来西亚的播不停音乐的网站,像似收音机般,称为Live FM, 里面你可以参与点歌;有机会加入成为DJ;有聊天室;各种各样的论坛;还有软件,MP3与电影下载,类似香港的uwants.com,不过多了一些新意儿,有空不妨游览一下。

在股市动荡期间,打发时间,松弛精神,等待从新出发!

http://mydarkforum.com/

越南最大券商:外資開始撈底


【明報專訊】若過去一年香港股市被形容為「過山車」,那麼,越南股市可說是「跳樓機」,暴漲暴跌。今年以來越南股市一度累積跌逾67%,股民損失慘重。該國最大證券公司——西貢證券公司(Saigon Securities)接受本報訪問時分析,利息高企,當地投資者紛紛拋售股票向銀行還款,令股市低迷。不過,外資機構投資者仍對市場基調樂觀,正在吸納股份「撈底」,相信今年底該國股市可重拾升軌。

越南主要指數VN Index,在06年底用了半年時間,由250點直衝上最高1158點,暴升3倍多。不過自從通脹惡化,指數同樣於半年間暴瀉至300多點,幾近打回原形。本月初經歷了連續20天跌市後,一度停市幾天,直到日前連續5天升市,才露曙光。監管部門一直在研究救市措施,擴闊指數每日波幅(主板由2%擴至3%)被視為良方之一,政策昨日首告落實,惟隨即瀉逾2%,是3個月來最大單日跌幅。

七成是散戶 易掀恐慌性拋售

市場佔有率逾一成的西貢證券公司,其經紀部主管Ho Minh Tri,昨在胡志明市總部接受訪問說,去年股民蜂擁投入股市,每日新開的證券戶口上百個,現時僅約20個,該行的佣金收入減少30%至40%,管理層已重新調整全年盈利預測。

他說,跌市是心理因素主導。「市場七成參與者都是散戶,他們根本不懂上市公司的基本因素和技術分析,跟其他人買,也不懂得在高位沽貨獲利。」於是,跌市的時候引起恐慌,所有人也跟拋售。

借錢炒股成致命傷

不過,投資者借錢炒股才是致命傷。Tri表示,不少投資者借錢炒股後,又將股份給銀行做抵押,再借錢來買樓、名車和高檔品牌,一些他們本身無能力負擔的東西。結果當銀行加息,股民須沽售股票和賣樓來還債,令股樓齊跌,又引起市場恐慌性拋售,形成雪球效應。

然而根據資料,外資機構投資者並未撤走,甚至是淨買入者(買入多於賣出總額),「一些國際知名機構如花旗、匯豐、摩根士丹利和野村資產管理等,仍在積極購入股份」。據他所知,一些教育程度較高、對金融市場有認識的個人投資者,也正進入市場,「有個大客開戶資金高達1000億越盾(約4700萬港元)!」

事實上,越南股市現時的市盈率已跌至10倍左右,市帳率更不足1倍,Tri認為是合理水平,並是時候吸納,相信當地股市年底可重返正常軌道。

(明報記者羅羽庭越南胡志明市報道)

Saturday, June 21, 2008

種植領域


(吉隆坡)價格飆升的棕仁油步原棕油後塵,加入種植領域暴利稅行列,對種植領域是雪上加霜,但分析員認為,市場供應吃緊、美國潮濕氣候、高油價等因素,原棕油前景持續正面,有助緩和衝擊,維持種植領域“加碼”評級。

根據暴利稅法令,從7月1日起,暴利稅機制將取代原有的食品油津貼機制(COSS),並依據大馬棕油局平均原棕油售價,各別向東馬和半島州屬,每公噸價格超過2000令吉的原棕油和棕仁油,徵收7.5%和15%稅務。

聯昌研究指出,原有的食品油津貼機制並不包括種植面積少於40公頃的種植業者,政府通過落實涵蓋面較廣的暴利稅機制,並將近期價格飆漲的棕仁油納入其中,預計徵收的稅金所得,將較COSS高出近13%,達到29億令吉目標。

14億稅金津貼食品油

“我們預計稅金所得的14億令吉,將用來津貼每月平均7萬公噸的食品油用量,餘額則充作其他食品津貼和政府開銷。”

儘管棕仁油也難逃暴利稅,但預計新措施將對東馬種植業者有利,對在半島擁有大片種植面積的業者則是負面消息。

若原棕油價格達每公噸3350令吉水平,東馬種植業者將可節省2.0%稅務,相反半島業者則需負擔額外1.5%稅務,較先前預測的0.5%高,估計種植公司盈利將受衝擊,幅度介於下滑0.3%至上揚1.8%之間。

相關稅務較預期來得負面,但聯昌認為,這有助市場釐清真相,且對種植公司盈利衝擊不大,加上市場供應吃緊、油價高漲,以及美國潮濕氣候,令大豆種植受到影響,料積極推動原棕油價格走揚,前景依舊良好,維持各大種植公司盈利預測。

不同策略護盤
四大種植公司風險不一

大馬研究預計,上遊和下游領域賺益持續走揚,加上原棕油產量和併購成長帶動,盈利成長集中,唱好原棕油領域前景,維持2008和2009每公噸原棕油平均售價3500令吉目標。

儘管原棕油前景看好,但全球四大種植公司均採用不同的護盤策略,風險程度也各不相同,其中IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主板種植組)採用預售3個月產量方式,而森那美(SIME,4197,主板貿服組)則是以1+2個月進行期貨交易。

新加坡豐益國際(Wilmar International)和印多福農業(Indofood Agri)則是根據市況和現月貨進行交易。

分析員認為,豐益國際的護盤策略最好,在原棕油價格年初上抵每公噸4000令吉價位時,便對原棕油價格感到憂慮,並預售2008財政年半數產量。在產量方面,IOI集團純鮮果串產量達到每公頃26至28公噸,加上低於市場平均的營運成本,無疑是這環節最大贏家。

但隨著現處於黃金週期的果樹樹齡漸老,以及印尼貢獻尚未顯著,在未來3至5年,新加坡豐益國際和印多福農業將取代IOI集團崛起成為強者,主要是他們的果樹組合平均樹齡尚淺,強勁產能可期。

豐益國際和印多福農業2008至2011財政年鮮果串複合成長率(CAGR)各別將達到7%,IOI集團和森那美則為2%和1%。

此外,豐益國際和印多福農業也是最積極購置地庫的公司,雙雙通過併購其他業者,擴大旗下種植面積。

雖然IOI集團在上遊的擴充計劃不如豐益國際和印多福農業般積極,但該公司正慢慢透過荷蘭鹿特丹的洛德斯克羅科蘭(Loders Croklaan),在美國和歐洲食品領域佔據一席位,並宣佈計劃投資2億美元在美國和歐洲興建新廠房。

豐益國際憑藉其在大馬、印尼和中國的龐大經濟規模,加上在原產品市場的良好判斷紀錄,料是其中最大受益者。不過,IOI集團在特殊油脂領域處在良好位置,有望從中“卡位”爭取成長機會。

大馬研究表示,雖然通膨壓力令人憂慮,但原棕油現較大豆油便宜17至19%,料可從食品公司可能轉向採用更廉價的食品油中獲益。

IOI上游領域具優勢

總結4家種植公司,大馬研究認為,IOI集團在鮮果串產量以及營運效益均比其他公司來得好,上游領域最具優勢;過去數年持續提高派息率,並落實資本回退、拆細股票、股票回購等計劃,在資本管理方面最具效率,但未來資本管理空間有限,主要是公司保留銀彈充作業務擴充用途。

森那美派息具吸引力

森那美則擁有最具吸引力的派息政策,主要歸功於公司大股東國民投資公司(PNB)鼓勵公司積極回退資金。

豐益國際市場延伸能力最強,印多福農業則憑藉其市場領導地位,以及龐大的市佔率,在印尼食品油市場最吃得開。

马股4传言"炸弹"引爆!


(吉隆坡)政治局勢不明朗、高通膨困擾經濟前景、企業高層人事變動傳言等利空消息滿天飛,大馬股市籠罩不安情緒,短期內難有作為。

當前馬股引爆4大利空“炸彈”,導致股市在不利謠言下欲振乏力。

國民投資首席執行員丹斯里哈末卡瑪直言:“在股市低迷時,總是許多利空消息傳播。”

分析員更提醒投資者應謹慎“過濾”有關傳言,以免誤中“地雷”。

馬股昨日在政治通膨兩大利空衝擊下失守1200點水平,今早(週五,20日)原本在趁低吸納活動下大力回揚,一度激挺12.17點至1208.56點。儘管在謠言四起後瞬間欲振乏力,但臨尾反彈10.28點,收1206.67點。

1. 傳國行總裁潔蒂辭職

政局不明朗的時間,政府高層人事變動傳言往往最具殺傷力,而目前最“勁爆”的傳言就是國行總裁辭職消息。

不過,國行今日(週五,20日)接受《星洲財經》詢問時已經否認有關傳言。

傳言起因是根據國庫控股的文告透露,國行總裁潔蒂已經辭去國庫控股有限公司董事職位,從4月21日生效。

雖然生效日期在4時,在消息在目前“最敏感”的時間被公佈,難免引發議論紛紛,更讓市場揣測這是否是潔蒂離開國行的前兆。

辭職傳言重傷股市

加上目前通膨壓力罩頂,大馬5月通膨率創下3.8%,寫下22個月新高。在汽油和電費起價後,經濟學家普遍預測通膨將破6%,甚致觸至7%,更令國行在升息和保持經濟成長中進退維谷。

雖然國行出面否認傳言,但在現有政局和經濟局勢下,有關傳言對股市的殺傷力是最大的。

2. 傳森那美朱比爾辭職

市場上傳出森那美(SIME,4197;主板貿服組)首席執行員拿督斯里朱比爾辭職。不過,大股東國民投資已經嚴正否認有關傳言,惟朱比爾本身尚未對此有所評論。

森那美投資期貨虧損事件餘波蕩漾,隨著早前兩名涉及高層被辭退後,最近更傳出首席執行員拿督斯里朱比爾辭職,大股東國民投資公司(PNB)首席執行員丹斯里哈末卡瑪,對這項消息震驚之餘更認為純屬謠言。

《星洲財經》今日向哈末卡瑪查詢,森那美首席執行員拿督阿末朱比爾,是否如傳言般因子公司投資期貨,虧損1億2000萬令吉而引咎辭職,他一臉吃驚表示,沒有接獲任何相關訊息,包括森那美董事部的知會。

阿末朱比爾低調離場

他認為類似消息純是謠言,或和森那美辭退兩高層引起市場臆測有關。

阿末朱比爾今日出席森那美產業的產業推介禮,作風十分低調。最後在半途離場,缺席原定推介禮後的記者會,未發表任何談話。

事件“起火點”是森那美多位高層因為兩年前的期貨交易虧損而被“ 炒”,火勢過後一發不可收拾,傳言如野火燎原,傳至朱比爾辭職的消息,作為最大市值上市公司,森那美的一舉一動有左右馬股的力量,而掌舵人離開更是“驚人”消息,也“搶”去市場所有目光。

雖然傳言被否認,但在股市不佳的時局,預料還有更多政府相關企業人事的不利傳言,繼續“空襲”馬股。

3. 傳國行調高利率

5月通膨升至22個月新高,市場加息傳言四起,先傳車貸利率起,再傳國行緊急調升基本貨款利率,令市場驚慌。

不過,國行發言人今日對《星洲財經》否認上述兩項傳言,令人虛驚一場。

人民最怕調高貸款利息

物價油價天天漲,通膨一日比一日高,令人民叫苦連天,但現在大家最怕的就是─升息,因為“息魔”往往尾隨高通膨而來,而已經“苦哈哈”的日子,如果再加上房貸和其他各種貨款利息侵蝕,生活更苦不堪言。

雖然緊急升息傳言被澄清,但基於通膨壓力將築新高,“息魔”陰影在市場將如影隨行,短期不容易揮走。

4. 傳大藍籌海外高價購資產

自馬來亞銀行(MAYBANK,1155;主板金融組)早前接二連三高價收購海外銀行事件後,讓這隻大藍籌股價直直落,令市場對公司海外高價收購和投資聞之色變。

聞海外投資收購色變

之前上市公司接二連三投資越南,但該國經濟前景從“天堂掉入地獄”,也令投資越南公司股價從天堂往下掉,從美夢變惡夢。

投資者對企業併購和海外投資的熱衷再不如往日。市場消息指出,土著聯昌(COMMERZ,1023;主板金融組)計劃以59億泰銖(約5億8124萬令吉)出資收購泰國第4大銀行泰國銀行(Bank Thai)42%股權或展開全面獻購計劃,後續發展備受矚目。

其他接二連三的其他海外併購和投資案,最後美夢會不會變味,也令投資者高度關注。


我的话:我准备看马股大跌20点,再加上大马政治不稳定,刚刚报纸又报道蒙古女郎案驚人進展!《今日大馬》網站主編拉惹柏特拉在法定宣誓書上指,在阿旦杜亞被炸死時,有另外3人出現在案發現場,包括一位重要人物和一對男女。

油价走高拖累美国股市周五重挫


美国股市周五收盘重挫,福特汽车(Ford)领跌,受油价再度走高拖累。之前该公司已经在油价的影响下对收益预期发出过预警。

周五道琼斯指数收盘跌220.40点,至11842.69点,跌幅1.83%,为3月10日以来的最低收盘水平;标准普尔500指数跌24.90点,至1317.93点,跌幅1.85%;纳斯达克综合指数跌55.97点,至2406.09点,跌幅2.27%。

本周道琼斯指数下滑464.66点,跌幅3.78%,在今年以来表现较差的几周中排名第五;标准普尔500指数本周跌42.10点,跌幅3.1%;纳斯达克综合指数跌48.41点,至1.97%点。

周五金融股也再度大跌,下跌股既包括美国银行(Bank of America)等地区性银行和商业银行,也包括美林(Merrill Lynch)等大型投资银行。

导致股市下挫的最大因素仍然是原油价格上涨,道琼斯工业平均价格指数收在3月10日以来的最低水平,该日期是贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)危机爆发前一周。自原油价格在5月份突破每桶130美元后,通用汽车(General Motors)和美利坚航空公司(American Airlines)母公司AMR Corp.等公司纷纷警告燃油价格对其业务模式造成了压力。商品价格一直在左右股市走势。

周五这种状况尤其明显,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)股票策略师Binky Chadha发表报告称,美国股市已被油价控制,他表示,油价和股市走势负相关程度为至少18个月来的最强水平。

由于消费类公司和其他上市公司将在未来几周发布业绩预告,许多投资者已作好准备,应对这些公司公布与油价上涨有关的成本大增消息。

在一定程度上受油价上涨影响最大的个股之一是福特汽车。该公司受卡车和运动型多用途车销量下降影响,已宣布大幅减产并进一步下调对今明两年的利润预期。福特汽车下跌0.51美元,至5.81美元,跌幅8.1%。

金融股也再遭重创,Financial Select Sector SPDR收盘下跌1.7%,至22.18美元,创下5年多来最低收盘水平。

领跌股是美林,债券保险商MBIA和Ambac Financial信用评级遭下调引发了进一步资产冲减的忧虑。债券保险商是金融系统的关键环节,失去AAA级评级将威胁到其为银行和经纪公司承保的债券价值。此外影响银行股的消息是,花旗(Citigroup)发出预警,可能不得不进一步大幅冲减问题资产。

花旗跌0.87美元,至19.30美元,跌幅4.3%;美林收盘跌1.74美元,至35.95美元,跌幅4.6%。

美国银行和Wachovia股价双双受压,原因是美林分析师预计,地区性银行将进一步削减股息。美林还把该类股2008年的利润预期中值下调了15%。

美国银行跌1.04美元,至27.10美元,跌幅3.7%;Wachovia跌0.34美元,至17.43美元,跌幅1.9%。

而且,信贷市场仍面临压力,不断有企业和消费者贷款变成坏帐,这些事实表明,许多问题可能扩大。

Friday, June 20, 2008

更新:中国上调能源价格


面对原油价格突破每桶130美元给政府控制下的能源定价体系造成的冲击,中国政府宣布将上调汽油、柴油和电力的零售价格。

此举将向消费者身上转移一部分全球能源价格上涨的压力。国际上许多企业管理人士和政府官员早就敦促中国上调能源价格,尽管目前通胀的压力不断加大。上调油价和电价将会提高企业的成本,可能推高中国出口产品的价格。但这些调整并非是一些人所要求的对价格控制体系进行全面改革。
这一消息是在周四晚间中国国内市场休市后宣布的,而有关中国在全球石油市场中的作用及其对油价影响力的争论很有可能进一步升温。在此消息公布后,石油期货价格迅即回落,因预计上调零售价格将抑制中国对原油的购买量。但许多专家近几周来不断警告说,上调成品油价格实际上会导致中国的石油需求出现增长,从而在近期内加剧油价上涨。

中国上次调整国内成品油价格是去年11月,调价幅度为10%,而当时的原油价格约为每桶90美元。中国国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission)表示,此次将汽油和柴油的基准价格分别上调了17%和18%,自本周五开始生效。汽油价格将从每加仑2.80美元(1加仑=3.785升)涨至3.05美元,柴油价格将从每加仑2.45美元涨至3.05美元,这也是四年来的最大涨幅。全国销售电价平均上涨了4.7%。

中国是仅次于美国的全球第二大石油消费国,长期以来一直被认为是多年来全球油价持续上涨的主要推动力。随着近几个月来油价的飙升,中国政府长期坚持的限制汽油、柴油和电力零售价格的政策引起了前所未有的关注。批评人士指责此举是干扰市场发出的信号,维持了对石油和煤炭的需求,推动了价格的节节攀升。

随着通胀问题日益成为全球关注的焦点,对中国价格管制的政治压力甚至有可能超过对其汇率政策的长期争执,成为中国最具争议性的国际经济议题。美国财政部长亨利•鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)谈及能源的次数明显增加。他敦促中国政府放弃能源价格控制措施,称美国在上世纪70年代经过痛苦的经历后才发现,这种做法行不通。他也在本周的中美战略经济对话中再次提到了这个问题。

纽约咨询公司Rhodium Group的中国能源专家特雷弗•豪泽(Trevor Houser)说,中国即将取代沙特阿拉伯,成为美国眼中制造高油价的罪魁祸首。华盛顿抱怨中国价格管制的人同指责人民币汇率的都是同一群人。

周三,16名民主党参议员致信布什政府官员,指责中国的价格管制是油价上涨的原因,敦促他们在这个问题上给中国施加压力。署名者包括前总统参选人希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。他们在信中写道,美国人在加油站看到的情况在某种程度上是由中国发生的事情导致的。

中国国家副主席习近平参加本周末在沙特举行的石油生产国和消费国峰会时,此类紧张关系也将会被带到会议上。

这次调价并未取消政府定价的体制,不过中国已表示要进行更深入的改革。发改委副主任张晓强本周表示,我们改革定价体制的决心很大。但由于中国目前面临着10多年来最严重的通货膨胀(今年以来为8%以上),政府官员看来不愿让中国消费者完全面对世界油价暴涨的冲击。很重要的一点是对社会稳定的担忧,此次涨价的同时就宣布了一个补贴计划,以期将涨价对贫困人口的影响降至最低。

批评中国限价政策的逻辑非常简单:通过压低企业和消费者购买成品油的价格,中国妨碍了世界油价飙升导致需求走软这一正常市场机制发挥作用。

迄今为止,中国政府定价的主要影响还不是让其消费者炫耀基本不受其他国家高油价的影响。这种做法让中国的炼油厂无利可图,因为它们要以全球市场的价格购买原油,但以政府定价销售成品油。炼油厂从市场上退出,带来了成品油普遍短缺的现象。同样,发电厂的亏损也在上升,因为它们要以市场价购买煤炭,但却以较低的国家定价销售电力,电力短缺也开始在各地出现。

这意味着可供中国消费者购买的能源实际上是减少了,而没有增加。将价格提高到足以让炼油厂盈利的水平,炼油厂和发电厂就将全力满足过去几个月中难以释放的全部需求。

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)在最新一期石油市场报告中写道,自2007年以来,中国持续面临着成品油短缺的局面,这表明存在着巨大的潜在需求。IEA称,因为这些潜在的需求,如果零售价格上涨改善了供应情况,中国的石油需求增长甚至还会加速。

在去年11月将成品油价格上调10%以后,中国的石油需求并未明显放缓,世界市场的原油价格从那以后已上涨了约50%。

这次涨价能否让炼油厂完全扭亏为盈尚不清楚:一些分析师曾估计需要涨价25%才能实现这一目标。纽约股市周四,中国石油类公司的亚洲存托凭证大幅上扬。由于这一涨价消息,中国石化(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.)上涨了9.4%,中国石油(PetroChina Co.)上涨了6%。

成品油的供应可能迅速得到改善,因为许多炼油厂和分销商近几周来一直在期待着价格的上调。政府定价让它们能够有机会积累汽油和柴油,从而在不久后以更高的价格卖出获利。

尽管并没有确切的库存量数据,但中国近期的成品油进口却在增加:5月份的柴油进口量名列历史第三位,中国当月也是汽油的净进口国,这在历史上还是第一次。

这种行为也是分析师所说的价格管制增加国际市场动荡的一个原因。油价长期被人为压低,这一扭曲现象鼓励了消费者多开车,也让企业建设效率低下的工厂。高油价最终会鼓励消费者提高效率,但鉴于中国的石油使用现状和经济的高速发展,效果可能不会像一些观察人士预计的那么明显。

Rhodium Group的豪泽说,如果中国经济按10%的速度增长,即使油价上涨,石油需求还是会增加。他说,只有在石油消费者转而采用其它低能耗的手段时,高油价才能抑制需求,但目前中国并没有多少这样的手段。大多数中国城市的公共交通服务并不完善,让许多上班族别无选择。铁路运输通常都已满负荷运转,使消耗柴油的卡车运输成为企业仅有的选择之一。

尽管将中国对能源的强劲需求视为油价上涨的原因似乎已经成为一种惯例,但油价是在全球市场设定的,过去5年来全球石油消费量的年增长幅度仅略高于1%。因此,许多分析师表示,供应紧张、地缘政治的不确定性以及影响仍难以准确估量的商品市场金融投机行为等因素也同样重要。

美国咨询机构High Frequency Economics的卡尔•韦恩伯格(Carl Weinberg)说,中国在石油方面的消费相对较小。因此我很难理解为何要归咎于中国。中国是其他大宗商品市场的重要力量。它占全球钢铁需求的一半,铜需求的四分之一,但只占全球石油消费的不到10%。他说,将中国在钢铁或铜市场上的作用延伸到石油市场的做法是错误的。这是一种株连的做法。

Andrew Batson

沙進步黨未決定退出國陣‧綜指漲逾10點


(吉隆坡)大馬股市今日(週五,20日)早盤在隔夜美股回升的帶動下揚高。

綜合指數今早以1198.37點報開,起1.98點。隨後綜指一路騰高,直到上午10時5分升抵1208.56點高峰後,在套利賣壓下回落。

中午半休市時,綜指報1200.93點,起4.54點或0.38%。

由於沙巴進步黨最高理事會會議並未作出退出國陣的決定,使到馬股午盤暫得以鬆一口氣。

綜指閉市時掛1206.67點,上漲10.28點或0.86%。


我的评语:那只是暂时鬆一口氣,好戏还在后头!

Thursday, June 19, 2008

政治动荡引起市场担忧 马股失守1200跌16点


(吉隆坡19日讯)政治动荡进一步打压大马股市,吉隆坡综合指数延续昨天的跌势,今天失守1200点的关口,闭市时,隆综指挫跌16.20点。

分析员认为,国内不稳定的政治因素已引起市场担忧,预见将持续牵动马股未来的走势。

马股今日甫开市就直线滑落,中午更以1191.48点的水平暂时休市,大跌21.11点。闭市时,综指以1196.39点挂收,猛挫16.20点或1.34%,成交量达4亿9987万7400股。

根据亚欧美投资银行指出,近期的政治风波预料将愈演烈。同时,不信任首相动议预料也将出现在下周的国会会议上,势态的发展有可能会拖延了第九大马工程中期评估的计划。

一名资深分析员向本报透露,马股的风险主要来自国内不明朗的政治局势,再加上本地消费者花费减少、美国经济放缓、油价及原产品价格高涨,以及利率调整等的风险所左右。

“马股自大选来历经了3个月的波动。若美国经济在明年上半年出现好转迹象,今年第四季的美股将领先产生有回升效应,届时若大马的政治明朗化,或有机会搭上顺风车,慢慢有所回弹。”

“短期内的阻力水平将处于1250至1300点之间,支撑点则为1157点。”

肯南嘉证券行则在报告中指出,1200点是极重要的心理水平。根据技术分析,综指目前下探1198至1200点的支撑水平范围,若跌破此水平,最新的支撑点将是3月10日最低点的1157点。

达证券也表示,近期的政治局势对市场来说是个坏消息,预料外资的抛售已打击了蓝筹股及金融股项,不鼓励投资者在近期内进场。

分析员建议,投资者抛售或减持建筑相关股项,如雪资产集团(KHSB,6246,主板产业股)、柏朗桑集团(KPS,5843,主板贸服股)、马友乃德建筑(UEMBldr,4855,主板建筑股)及WCT(WCT,9679,主板建筑股)。

辉立资产管理公司总投资长洪国兴则表示,目前的投资策略偏向不受政治因素影响的股项,例如种植、出口公司等。

“不过,随着股市的下挫,也是一种投资机会,只望马股能够有所反弹。”

分析员则推荐种植和石油及天然气领域股项,对于那些有能力承担风险的投资者,应等待并评估至少超过6个月的展望,或等到马股跌至最低点时,才慢慢入场。

諾莫哈末:政局不會影響馬股


(吉隆坡19日訊)第二財長丹斯里諾莫哈末指出,現有政局不會對馬股造成顯著衝擊,並認馬股中期內將取得成長。
他指出,我國經濟及盈利依然強穩,可刺激股市。

“我不認為大馬交易所正面臨困難或挑戰,因為我國經濟基礎及盈利成長良好。”

詢及政局不穩是否導致馬股延續跌勢時,諾莫哈末說:“沙巴進步黨不支持國陣並不衍生政治不穩定課題。該黨是一個小型成員黨,並不會對政府或首相造成威脅。”

他指出,馬股是全球股市一分子,對全球負面發展無法免疫。

他說,國內經濟去年增長率達6.3%,今年首季也錄得7.1%增長,將使我國具有彈性對挑戰。

反應正常

“儘管馬股有起有落,惟中期將再錄得增長並解決所有問題。”

大馬交易所(BURSA,1818,主板金融)總執行長拿督尤斯里指出,隨著這樣的消息傳出,市場有這種反應是正常的。

“不過,我希望他們關注基本面,更甚于這些經常傳出的消息。”

國內外利空罩頂; 下半年經濟前景暗淡


(吉隆坡19日訊)通貨膨脹飆至22個月新高,經濟學家指出,受國內外利空衝擊,下半年經濟前景黯淡無光,除非國際油價下滑,否則將持續看淡明年前景。

經濟學家普遍上調全年通脹預測,並調低國內生產總值預測。

興業研究經濟學家白文春回應《中國報》提問時說,國內隱憂可分成兩部分,即政治局勢和潛在公共工程展延,及能源起價加劇通脹壓力。

他指出,政府可能重新分配發展撥款,將資金從部分公共工程轉至補貼食品,這將影響國內基建發展,使飽受通脹壓力威脅的經濟雪上加霜。

他和肯納格證券經濟學家旺蘇海米皆認同,更高的通脹將打擊消費者及投資者信心,進而影響內需成長。

5月消指漲3.8%

昨日宣佈的5月份消費價格指數(CPI)按年上漲3.8%,創下22個月新高。

白文春指出,除非國際油價下滑,紓緩各國通脹壓力,否則仍看淡未來季度及明年經濟前景。

他引述美國報導指出,美國當局認同油價存顯著投機成份,因此和英國配合,管制投機活動。

“一旦事成並推出相關措施,使油價持低的話,相信可助振明年經濟成長。”

料成長低於5%

綜合國內外因素,白文春預料下半年成長會低過5%,全年國內生產總值成長率則可達5.6%,主要受惠于上半年強勁成長幅度。

他認為,明年上半年成長率或可達4.5%,全年成長率預測為5%。

旺蘇海米認為,油價下滑或可減輕通脹壓力,但能否加速經濟成長仍是未知數。

“外圍利空如美國房產市場仍低迷,相信還需6個月至1年時間,才能觀察未來經濟走勢。”

他同樣看淡下半年經濟走勢,預計成長率就低于5%,全年國內生產總值成長率預測為5.3%。

但他樂觀展望,明年經濟將在下半年回揚走挺,預計明年成長率可達5.7%。

他相信,外圍需求將回揚,尤其電子及電器領域,進而帶動製造業成長。

“電子及電器外需已走軟多時,隨著庫存下滑,相信相關產品及服務需求將回揚。”

但世界銀行看好,我國今年經濟成長可達6%。

卖出KNM,暂时休战!


马股动荡不安与大马政治掩盖着不明朗的因素,我决定卖出KNM,蒙受亏损。再看看FKLI Futures,discount 15 points,明天星期五还是看跌成分较高。况且,美国隔夜道琼斯工商指数暴跌,跟还是离不开房贷所种下的祸根。

至于IOICorp的走势与大市相反,依然一点绿。IOICorp实在是超级稳固,不受外围不安的因素而下挫。

最近,买股难赚钱,而且是输多胜少,想想如果有机会出国挖金,也是不错的选择。

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

红海一片,有一点绿


今天的股市出现卖压,主要是受到沙巴進步黨宣佈對首相拿督斯里阿都拉失去信心,並會在下周召開的國會會議中,支持提出對首相投不信任票的動議。

股市红海一片,只看到一只蓝筹股有一点绿,那就是IOICorp了。
多数的蓝筹股下跌,只看到IOICorp起。

IOICorp不断地从市场吸纳股票,应该是跟大豆油期货上升有关系,而分析员给予CPO下半年将上探RM4500的预测也有关系。我觉得不大可能,
除非有突发事件,否则上探RM4000都会有点困难。

有时IOICorp不一定会推一推股价,有时只是等待,保持在一个固定的价位。记得上次6月11日买IOICorp时,大豆油期货起到64-65美元时,股价徘徊在RM7之间,然后隔天就卖掉,没有什么赚到。到现在,一直起到RM7.40之间,没有再买进。主要是股价高了,不值得冒险,大豆油期货与CPO迟早会回软。

KNM keen to supply equipment for LNG project


KNM GROUP Bhd, a world-class process equipment manufacturer, wants to tap business opportunities that will be generated from Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) recent acquisition of a 40 per cent stake in Santos Ltd's liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Gladstone, Australia.

Its chairman Datuk Mohamad Idris Mansor said the company is keen to supply process equipment for the proposed building of plants under the Gladstone LNG project.

"We will participate in the plant building rather than development of the project. They need process equipment, and we will tender to supply them," he told reporters after the company's annual general meeting in Sri Kembangan yesterday.

Last month, Petronas announced that it is paying US$2.5 billion (RM8.12 billion) or 40 per cent interest in Santos' LNG project in Gladstone. Under the agreement, a new entity will be set up which will also build and operate a 450km pipeline from jointly-owned upstream coal seam gas (CSG) assets to the project site as well as undertake all marketing activities for the project's LNG output.



Idris said KNM's subsidiary in Australia, KNM Pty Ltd, will be able to supply process equipment for the facilities in Gladstone.

"If there are opportunities for us to bid for their plant, meaning they have to build a plant to handle the project, our Australian office can definitely participate in bidding for it," he added.

Meanwhile, KNM Group managing director Lee Swee Eng said he believes KNM will have the edge to secure contracts from the Gladstone project through its recently acquired German company, Borsig.

"Borsig is very strong in this CSG area, particularly in reactors and boilers," he said.

KNM acquired Borsig this year for €350 million (RM1.7 billion).

Lee said KNM has not started talking to Petronas yet about the Gladstone project, and may opt instead to approach turnkey contractors appointed by the national oil company.

"We will come in very much mid-way into the project. For the early phase, Petronas will be talking to engineering consultants or turnkey contractors," he said.

He added that KNM expects to start bidding for contracts after 2010, the third year of the five-year planned period for the Gladstone project.

KNM bids for RM20b of projects


The value of the contracts the engineering group is bidding for can go as high as RM50 million or less than RM1 million per project, says its group MD

KNM Group Bhd, a world-class process equipment fabricator, is bidding for RM20 billion worth of projects overseas, namely in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.

Group managing director Lee Swee Eng said that traditionally, the company's success rate in securing projects is between 20 per cent and 25 per cent.

"We are continuously bidding for projects irrespective of their size and value of the contracts. It can go as high as RM50 million or less than RM1 million per project," he told reporters after KNM's annual general meeting in Seri Kembangan, Selangor, yesterday.

"At any one time, we will bid for an average of 100 projects," he said.



KNM's order book stands at RM4.2 billion, with 95 per cent of the projects overseas and the rest domestic.

"Our order book is quite diversified and evenly spread around the world. We have projects in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, China, North and South America, Canada and Europe," Lee said.

He added that organic expansion will continue to be its main growth driver this year.

"The group continues to strive to improve its global market share for process equipment by expanding its current manufacturing plants and establishing new facilities in global oil and gas hotspots."

For instance, it approved capital expenditure last year to set up manufacturing facilities in Alberta, Canada; Espirito, Brazil; and Al-Jubail, Saudi Arabia.

"Once completed, the manufacturing facilities will significantly improve the group's ability to secure more contracts for projects in Canada, Brazil and the Middle East," Lee said.

The plant in Alberta is expected to be operational by the third quarter.

The company also announced plans this year to acquire two process equipment manufacturers, namely Belgium's Ellimetal and Germany's Borsig, for €20 million (RM101 million) and €350 million (RM1.8 billion) respectively.

"Such acquisitions are intended to elevate the group up the process equipment value chain," Lee said.

He added that Borsig had already started contributing to the group's revenue, while Ellimetal was expected to generate revenue by next month.

"Borsig's acquisition was completed on June 6, and its revenue consolidated in KNM's account this month, while we are close to concluding the purchase of Ellimetal this month."

Lee also said that the company does not actually reap benefits from the high oil price, but more from the demand for such fossil fuel.

"When there is demand for fuel, there will definitely be more jobs for us, the service providers.

"But it will not be good if the price of oil rises too high as that will adversely affect the economy, which will result in less demand for fuel," he said.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

买进KNM


机会来了,今天买进KNM,作价RM6.20。

当时4点多,我有点犹豫不决,到底买还是不买;要排在RM6.15还是RM6.20;当看到美国道琼斯工商Future指数呈上扬趋势,同时RM6.20在卖单给人吃完了,决定排在首个买单RM6.20,一两下就做到RM6.20,不久一个500lots的卖单炸到RM6.15,想不到RM6.15的价格也能做到。

有时买股也讲运气,希望买到最低点,虽然如此,不过最重要还是不会让我蒙受亏损。

这是买股投资最终目的就是要获利!

科恩馬手持42億訂單;海外競標200億工程


(吉隆坡17日訊)科恩馬(KNM,7164,主板工業)迄今握有約42億令吉訂單,同時正競標海外超過100項、總值200億令吉的工程。
科恩馬董事經理李瑞興透露,公司競標成功率介于20%至25%。

他指出,競標計劃遍佈全球,尤以西亞地區居多,包括沙地阿拉伯、科威特及卡達爾等。

他說,目前海外業務貢獻盈利約95%。

他今日出席年度股東大會后,發表談話;列席者包括主席拿督莫哈末依德利斯。

科恩馬甫在本月6日,完成收購德國工程公司Borsig BBtev(簡稱Borsig)。

李瑞興指出,Borsig已開始貢獻公司盈利,現階段除了推動業務自行成長,也不排除任何併購機會。

“我們會考慮任何新併購計劃,但也會專注推動新加入的Borsig業務成長。”

該公司是在今年3月宣佈,斥資逾17億令吉全面併購Borsig和旗下6家子公司。

至于比利時油氣加工配備生產商Ellimetal NV收購計劃,李瑞興預計,可在月內完成收購,並從7月開始貢獻公司盈利。

未設定派息政策

科恩馬迄今未擬定派息政策,莫哈末依德利斯指出,管理層持續留意股東的派息需求,未計劃設定派息政策。

李瑞興也說,股東正受惠于公司業務成長,管理層將優先考慮,把資金重新注入公司以擴展業務成長。

詢及科恩馬是否有意參與馬石油(Petronas)及澳洲能源公司Santos的煤層天然氣聯營工程時,他指出,科恩馬沒有和馬石油展開任何洽談。

“但Borsig擁有上述計劃所需的煤層天然氣相關科技,因此佔有一定優勢。”

他說,科恩馬為配備生產及供應商,一般在工程中期才開始供應配備。

他以5年工程為例,預計在2009年底或2010年時,上述工程承包商才開始物色相關配備供應商。

至于加拿大新廠房進度時,李瑞興指出,新廠建築預算約6500萬令吉,年產能可達10噸。

上述廠房主要生產油砂層相關配備。

Monday, June 16, 2008

油氣業火紅;投資者宜油股克油價


(吉隆坡16日訊)國際原油價格漲勢如虹,加上馬石油(Petronas)充當大靠山,令石油天然氣領域(簡稱油氣業)前景明亮,投資者可借此買進油氣概念股,以“油克油”,紓緩通脹壓力。

豐隆證券研究說,原油價格至今高漲44%至每桶139美元(約455.29令吉),仍往前衝高,增長動力未減。

“為避免2014年成為淨石油進口國,馬石油每年資本開銷達250億令吉,積極開採,為油氣業者創造更大的市場蛋糕和商機。”

報告指出,油氣服務股至今下跌9%,惟有關股項在308全國大選馬股調整期中快速恢復元氣,顯示油氣概念股基本面強穩,回升彈力強勁。

“我們預計,油氣業未來2年每股盈利(EPS)看俏,特別是造船商和裝配商(Fabricator)。”

市場估計,戴樂集團(DIALOG,7277,主板貿易)和肯油企業(KENCANA,5122,主板貿易)每股盈利將提高40%;船務公司則預料增加20至40%。

豐隆研究說,油價漲升利潤豐厚,全球探勘計劃接踵而來,增添油氣業的投資魅力。

該行推薦丹絨岸外(TGOFFS,7228,主板貿易),儘管船運費按年上升20至30%,股價則滑落20%,上揚空間大。

此外,油氣業下半年將完成多項大型併購計劃,為馬股市注入生氣,包括馬國際船務(MISC,3816,主板貿易)將在第4季,完成對RAMUNIA控股(RAMUNIA,7206,二板貿易)的收購。

科恩馬(KNM,7164,主板工業)總值17億令吉、全面收購德國工程公司Borsig BBtev的併購案也將在年底完成。

能源價格勁漲,使國人面對沉重通脹壓力,投資者不妨採用“油克油”策略,買進油氣股抗通貨膨脹。

馬石油天然氣
以錢換電造福沙巴

“現金王”馬石油天然氣(PETGAS,6033,主板工業),終于對外宣佈資金用途,一如市場所料未用于派發高股息,而是“以錢換電”,造福沙巴居民。

分析員認為,這是正面舉動,料該公司陸續公佈新計劃,以善用手上逾10億令吉現金。

僑豐投資研究分析員吳寶雲說,沙巴能源儲電量僅有30%,興建發電廠是必須的,特別是國家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板貿易)在當地的煤炭發電廠計劃觸礁。

“根據第三代購電合約(PPA),新發電廠的天然氣價格每百萬熱值單位(MMBTU)6.40令吉,料稅務與攤銷前賺幅(EBIT)達30%,以馬石油天然氣持股60%計算,該計劃將推高合理價格9仙。”

馬石油天然氣週五宣佈,已和沙巴基金簽署聯合發展同意書,共同探討在沙巴金馬利建一座300瓦特天然氣發電廠的可能性。

馬石油天然氣將持聯營公司60%股權,沙巴基金持余下股權。

吳寶雲說,截至3月31日,該公司現金量多達17億令吉,扣除4億5410萬令吉貸款,淨現金仍達12億5370萬令吉。

“估計發電廠興建成本為9億3000萬令吉,馬石油天然氣手上還握有6億9570萬令吉大量現金,相信緊接著將公佈更多擴展計劃。”

此外,預計馬石油(Petronas)與馬石油天然氣之間的供電收費合約(Throughput Fee Agreement),將在7月1日獲調整,料進一步提高后者收入。

因此,僑豐投資研究上調馬石油天然氣評級至“短線買進”(Trading Buy),目標價格為10.30令吉。

閉市時,馬石油天然氣報10令吉,起0.5仙,全日成交量為37萬4600股。

全面退出建筑股,卖出WCT


最近,建筑股的负面消息实在太多,暂时不想动了。

尤其是主要建筑股以Gamuda与WCT受到越南高利率及高通货膨胀的影响,暂缓业务进展。再说油价高涨,百物价格高涨,超越当初合约的成本,恐怕会亏损,日后股价的表现受到影响。

建筑工程的合约不像消费与服务行业能把高成本转嫁给消费者,已避免亏损,所以有亏损自己承受。除非这些合约有提供一些价格波动的条文以保护建筑承包商。

另外最近洋灰与钢铁涨幅实在是空前绝后,是历年来涨幅最高。

加上电气业的配备商品也涨价,加剧了工程的成本与开销。

同时政府要检讨一切大型发展计划,减少开销。

结论是暂时退出建筑股,等待一切业务公布明朗化后才打算。

Sunday, June 15, 2008

添油現金回扣



昨天从吉隆坡回返家乡,发现到车龙已减少,路途顺畅。
汽油起价效应立竿见影,市民开始省吃俭用了。

另外一方面,报纸报导郵政局昨天開放給4月1日至5月31日更新路稅的私人轎車、卡車和小型貨車及摩哆車主,申領添油現金回扣。人潮汹涌,你推我挤。
能源、水務及通訊部長拿督沙茲曼呼籲車主,申領添油現金回扣截止日期是明年3月31日,車主無須急于前往郵政局申領。至於路稅於2008年6月1日至2009年3月31日期間到期的車主,必須等到7月1日才能夠到郵政局申領現金回扣。
我打算在7月的时候,一次过拿回路税与添油現金回扣,因为我的路税是在6月中刚申请新的。

另外,建商公会似乎与我心有灵犀一点通,报导了目前市场上的建筑商所面对因价格波动而导致工程成本增加,随时面对亏损的困境。他建议政府实行全面价格波动的条文,以解决承包商面对的问题和避免建筑业陷入困境。

Saturday, June 14, 2008

The World's Best Places to Live 2008


Mercer Consulting's annual roundup of the global cities with the best quality of life is here, and Zurich once again comes out on top. The best place in the U.S.? Honolulu at No. 28.

New York, London, and Paris are internationally renowned cities but consultants at Mercer Consulting have picked Zurich, Switzerland, as the best place to live in the company's annual survey.

Consultants rated each city on a variety of factors including the level of traffic congestion, air quality, and personal safety reported by expatriates living in more than 600 cities worldwide. In the top 25, U.S. cities such as San Francisco, Boston, and Chicago were all edged out by Geneva, Switzerland, Vancouver, B.C., and Auckland, New Zealand. The highest-scoring U.S. city is Honolulu, which came in at No. 28.

Still, Mercer acknowledges that cities with a high quality of life are not necessarily the most exciting. "There are a lot of 'sleepy' towns that got high ratings," said Rebecca Powers, a principal consultant in human capital for the company. "But if you were to judge them on something like nightlife, there are some that probably wouldn't have rated as high."


No. 1: Zurich, Switzerland

Mercer score: 108*
2007 rank: No. 1
GDP: $300.9 billion (2007 est.)**
Population: 7,581,520 (total country); 347,517 (total city)
Life expectancy: 80.74 years

No. 2 (tie): Vienna, Austria

Mercer score: 107.9
2007 rank: No. 3
GDP: $319.7 billion (2007 est.)
Population: 8,205,533 (total country); 1,825,287 (total city)
Life expectancy: 79.36 years


No. 2 (tie): Geneva, Switzerland

Mercer score: 107.9
2007 rank: No. 2
GDP: $300.9 billion (2007 est.)
Population: 7,581,520 (total country); 185,000 (total city)
Life expectancy: 80.74 years

No. 4: Vancouver, Canada

Mercer score: 107.6
2007 rank: No. 3
GDP: $1.274 trillion (2007 est.)
Population: 33,212,696 (total country); 560,000 (total city)
Life expectancy: 81.16 years


No. 5: Auckland, New Zealand

Mercer score: 107.3
2007 rank: No. 5
GDP: $112.6 billion (2007 est.)
Population: 4,173,460 (total country); 1.18 million (total city)
Life expectancy: 80.24 years

No. 6: Dusseldorf, Germany

Mercer score: 107.2
2007 rank: No. 6
GDP: $2.833 trillion (2007 est.)
Population: 82,369,548 (total country); 581,858 (total city)
Life expectancy: 79.1 years


No. 7 (tie): Munich, Germany

Mercer score: 107
2007 rank: No. 8
GDP: $2.833 trillion (2007 est.)
Population: 82,369,548 (total country); 1,332,650 (total city)
Life expectancy: 79.1 years

No. 7 (tie): Frankfurt, Germany

Mercer score: 107
2007 rank: No. 7
GDP: $2.833 trillion (2007 est.)
Population: 82,369,548 (total country); 3,700,000 (total city)
Life expectancy: 79.1 years


No. 9: Bern, Switzerland

Mercer score: 106.5
2007 rank: No. 9
GDP: $319.7 billion (2007 est.)
Population: 8,205,533 (total country); 122,178 (total city)
Life expectancy: 79.36 years

No. 10: Sydney, Australia

Mercer score: 106.3
2007 rank: No. 9
GDP: $766.8 billion (2007 est.)
Population: 20,600,856 (total country); 4,297,100 (total city)
Life expectancy: 80.73 years

Builders want mandatory clause on price fluctuations


PETALING JAYA: The Master Builders Association of Malaysia (MBAM) has requested the Government to consider a mandatory fluctuation cost clause for all future construction contracts due to rising building material and fuel prices.

MBAM said in the interim, for existing projects without the clause, builders should be compensated for additional costs due to the increase in material prices.

“This additional cost can be computed using the same mechanism provided in the conventional ‘build' contract for government projects,” it said in a statement yesterday.

For future projects, it said, the inclusion of adjustments for price fluctuations should be extended from the conventional “build” contracts, to all “design and build” contracts, direct negotiation contracts and other projects undertaken by semi-government bodies and agencies.

For private contracts, the tender documents should state building materials for private jobs to be supplied at a fixed price and deducted from the main contract.

The association said the recent diesel and petrol price hikes were having an impact on its members, while contractors were finding it harder to manage construction costs due to rising material costs.

Due to the uncertainty of costs, it said contractors wanted the Government to look into measures to ensure the delivery and sustainability of projects, especially due to some cost-push factors.

The factors included high construction demand due to the sudden implementation of projects under the Ninth Malaysia Plan and the economic corridors; high-end property development projects; and also the continued demand for building materials and labour worldwide.

The Star

KNM in, Gamuda out of FBM30 index



KNM Group Bhd will replace Gamuda Bhd in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Large 30 Index after the half-yearly index review, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Advisory Committee announced yesterday.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid-70 Index experienced similar turnover levels as the last review with seven new stocks entered the mid-cap index compared to eight during the December 2007 review, the committee said in a statement.

The new stocks are Gamuda Bhd, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, Ann Joo Resources Bhd, Kinsteel Bhd, Tradewinds Malaysia Bhd, Media Chinese International Ltd and Boustead Properties Bhd.

As for the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Syariah Index, a tradeable index of 30 stocks to be used as the basis for international Syariah-compliant products, two changes were approved with the inclusion of KLCC Property Holdings Bhd and Star Publications Malaysia Bhd.

According to the committee, the changes to the indices are to take place as part of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Series half-yearly review.

“The regular reviews ensure the indices remain an accurate reflection of the market they represent,” it said, adding that the changes will take effect at start of business on June 23, 2008. — Bernama

Friday, June 13, 2008

还没开工就已经亏钱


目前,基本上马股里只有大型种植股比如IOICorp, Sime, KLK, PPB, Asiatic,Bstead比较有看头,小型种植股不屑一顾。油气股我选择KNM与Sapcres,可以作短线投资,其他的可以不用看。其他sector股类恐怕会出现利空或业绩财测下调甚至亏损,首选建筑股,原因如下:

a)政府陸續放寬建材管制,今年5月開放鋼鐵頂價、廢除進口執照和關稅及取消出口限制后,
6月初撤除洋灰頂價及進口限制,近日則宣佈縮短鋼鐵和洋灰進口準證批准程序。

b)政府在5月6日宣布每公升1元92分的汽油将涨至2元70分,涨幅高达40.6%;每公升1元58分的柴油,则涨至2元58分,涨幅高达63.3%。

那些已经完成的工程,还可以说度过百物高涨的难关。不过,那些在以上措施宣布前而且刚拿到的工程就面临亏损,我看那些拿刚到工程合约的建筑公司只有放弃,交回给政府或私人界了。就多不过只是罚款,进黑名单。

简单说一句,还没开工就已经亏钱。亏钱的工程,谁要去做?只有工程合约能获利,人才有兴趣。天下没有白吃的午餐。

Asiatic to develop palm plantation in Indonesia



KUALA LUMPUR: Asiatic Development Bhd’s wholly-owned subsidiary Mediglove Sdn Bhd has proposed joint ventures to acquire and develop 45,000ha of oil palm plantation at Kabupaten Kapuas in Kalimantan Tengah, Indonesia.

In a statement yesterday, it said Mediglove would subscribe for six million shares in Asianindo Holdings Pte Ltd for US$9 million (RM29.25 million) cash while Kara Agri Pte Ltd would subscribe for 3.999 million shares at US$1 each.

Mediglove would also subscribe for 3,000 shares in Gaiaagri Services Ltd for US$3,000 while Gaiaagri Holdings Ltd would subscribe for 6,999 shares at US$1 each.

“Mediglove will initially subscribe for 60% equity interest in Asianindo, and progressively increase its equity interest to 77% in line with additional equity injection of US$37.75 million,” the company said.

It said Kara would have a 40% interest in Asianindo, and pare it down to 23% at a later stage.

Under the agreements, Asianindo would buy, develop and own the oil palm plantation and palm oil mills in Kabupaten Kapuas while Gaiaagri Services would be the sole and exclusive provider of the management services to Asianindo for the cultivation and development of oil palm plantation and setting up take palm oil mill for five years.

“By outsourcing the cultivation and development of oil palm plantation and establishment of palm oil mill of the proposed JV to Gaiaagri Services, Asiatic is able to accelerate its expansion and pursue its growth strategy in increasing its footprint in oil palm cultivation in Indonesia and other parts of the world,” it added.

Asia's best managed companies: Taiwan


We publish the results of our annual poll to find Asia's top companies. Today, Taiwan.

For our eighth annual poll of Asia's top companies we have collected votes from 167 investors and analysts across the region. The results are being published country by country over a two-week period and the final day will also reveal which companies are viewed to be the best managed in the region in eight key sectors.

Here are the results for Taiwan.

Best managed company Votes
1. TSMC 44
2. MediaTek 25
3. Delta Electronics 15
4. Hon Hai Precision 14
5. China Steel 12
5. Formosa Plastics Group 12
5. Cathay Financial 12
8. HTC 11
9. Yuanta Financial 7

Best corporate governance Votes
1. TSMC 52
2. China Steel 30
3. MediaTek 12
4. First Financial 10
5. FarEasTone 9
5. Formosa Plastics Group 9
7. Asustek 8
8. HTC 6
8. Yuanta Financial 6

Best investor relations Votes
1. TSMC 40
2. China Steel 26
3. Acer 22
4. Delta Electronics 14
5. Fubon Financial 10
6. MediaTek 9
7. Yuanta Financial 7
7. D-Link 7

Most committed to a strong dividend policy Votes
1. TSMC 34
2. China Steel 28
3. Chunghwa Telecom 18
4. Formosa Plastics Group 12
4. Mega Holdings 12
4. Delta Electronics 12
7. MediaTek 10

Best mid-cap Votes
1. Silitech 14

Best small-cap Votes
1. Shin Zu Shing 13

Best CFO Votes
1. Lora Ho (TSMC) 16
2. Ming-To Yu (MediaTek) 7

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Asia's best managed companies: Thailand


We publish the results of our annual poll to find Asia's top companies. Today, Thailand.

For our eighth annual poll of Asia's top companies we have collected votes from 167 investors and analysts across the region. The results are being published country by country over a two-week period and the final day will also reveal which companies are viewed to be the best managed in the region in eight key sectors.

Here are the results for Thailand.

Best managed company Votes
1. PTT 46
2. Siam Cement 42
3. PTTEP 29
4. Thai Oil 14
5. Kasikornbank 12
5. Banpu 12
7. The Erawan Group 11
8. Siam Commercial Bank 10
9. Precious Shipping 9

Best corporate governance Votes
1. Siam Cement 52
2. PTT 32
3. Siam Commercial Bank 16
4. Banpu 15
5. Kasikornbank 14
6. PTTEP 12
7. DTAC 10
8. Thai Oil 9
9. Precious Shipping 6

Best investor relations Votes
1. PTT 34
2. Siam Commercial Bank 32
3. Banpu 27
4. Kasikornbank 21
5. Siam Cement 17
6. Charoen Pokphand Foods 16
7. Egco 12
8. The Erawan Group 11
9. PTTEP 10

Most committed to a strong dividend policy Votes
1. Siam Cement 60
2. PTT 24
3. Banpu 21
4. Egco 18
5. AIS 15
5. PTTEP 15
7. Thai Plastic & Chemicals 14
8. Land & Houses 12

Best mid-cap Votes
1. TISCO Bank 18
2. The Erawan Group 9
2. Thai Plastic & Chemicals 9

Best small-cap Votes
1. Thai Optical Group 13
2. TNDT 12

Best CFO Votes
Pichai Chunhavachira (PTT) 18

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

無助提振建築業; 放寬建材短空長多


(吉隆坡11日訊)政府近期宣佈一連串措施放寬建築材料領域,經濟學家認為,儘管此舉無助提振建築業,且短期衝擊顯見,惟長期可助提昇效益及競爭力,並延伸利好到消費者。

政府陸續放寬建材管制,今年5月開放鋼鐵頂價、廢除進口執照和關稅及取消出口限制后,6月初撤除洋灰頂價及進口限制,近日則宣佈縮短鋼鐵和洋灰進口準證批准程序。

大馬評估機構咨詢服務(RAM)首席經濟學家姚金龍博士回應《中國報》提問說,政府系列措施,主要旨在緩和國內鋼鐵和洋灰供應短缺的影響。

“特別是頂價機制導致國內建材價格,與國際價格存有太大差距,嚴重扭曲業者原本應有的實際競爭力和效益。”

聯昌證券研究經濟學家李興裕認同指出,業者翹首引領甚久,政府自由化建材領域的舉措非常適時。

他指出,國際鋼鐵和洋灰價格激漲,可惜頂價和進口限制導致國內供應嚴缺,黑市交易導致建築業者賺幅備受壓縮。

成本與現實脫節

“再者,基于估算建築成本與現實脫節,業者對政府競標工程興致索然,政府不得不開放市場。”

姚金龍認為,基于建材市場進一步開放,建築業者或無法避免短期內面對較高的成本。

“在轉嫁機制下,消費者也必須有心理準備,吸納建築業者轉嫁的高企成本。”

不過,隨著進口限制撤除后,意味著廉宜建材將可流入國內,建築業者擁有額外選擇,成功降低成本后,消費者最終也能受益。

李興裕說,國內建材成本勁揚,同時逼使政府檢討大型公共發展計劃,加上燃油和能源價格激增,對建築業而言,卻是另一個打擊。

“建築業成長必然遭受衝擊,儘管成長動力猶在,但預計大不如前。”

我國建築領域今年首季錄得5.3%年增幅,去年末季則是為4.7%。



财经新闻来自中国报